Consider the following time series data:

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	18	13	16	11	17	14

Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? You can use JMP to obtain the plot or Excel

Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Example in tutorial video

Use alpha=.2to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.Example in tutorial video

Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain.