Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 14 16 11 17 15 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week (to 2 decimals if necessary). MSE = ? The forecast for week 7 =? c. Use a=0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week (to 2 decimals). MSE=? The forecast for week 7=? d. Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using a=0.2 Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain. The three-week moving average provides a (worse or better) forecast than the exponential smoothing approach since it has a (smaller or larger) MSE. e. Use a smoothing constant of a=0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. Compute MSE (to 2 decimals). Does a smoothing constant of a= 0.2 or 0.4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain. The exponential smoothing forecast using a=0.4 provides a (WORSE/BETTER) forecast than the exponential smoothing forecast using a=0.2 since it has a (SMALLER / LARGER) MSE