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Consider the following time series. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 70 67 61 2 50 42 52 3 59 61 54
Consider the following time series. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 70 67 61 2 50 42 52 3 59 61 54 4 77 80 71 (a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Is there an indication of a seasonal pattern? The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern with no seasonal pattern present. The time series plot shows a trend pattern, but there is also a seasonal pattern in the data. The time series plot shows a trend pattern with no seasonal pattern present. The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern, but there is also a seasonal pattern in the data. (b) Use a multiple linear regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. x = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; x2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; x3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise. (c) Compute the quarterly forecasts for the next year. quarter 1 forecast quarter 2 forecast quarter 3 forecast quarter 4 forecast
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