Consider the following time series:

Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

1 69 66 60

2 44 36 46

3 60 62 55

4 79 82 73

What type of pattern exists in the data? Is there an indication of a seasonal pattern?____-Select your answer-

• Positive trend pattern, no seasonality
• Horizontal pattern, no seasonality
• Negative trend pattern, no seasonality
• Positive trend pattern, with seasonality
• Horizontal pattern, with seasonality

(b)Use a multiple linear regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data:Qtr1= 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise;Qtr2= 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise;Qtr3= 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign even if there is a + sign before the blank. (Example: -300) = ____+ ____Qtr1+_____Qtr2+_____Qtr3

(c)Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year

Year Quarter Ft

4 1 ____

4 2 ____

4 3 ____

4 4 ____