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Consider the following two earnings forecasting models: Model 1 (Random walk model) E t (EPS t+1 ) = EPS t Model 2 (Mean-reverting model) E
Consider the following two earnings forecasting models:
Model 1 (Random walk model) Et(EPSt+1) = EPS t
Model 2 (Mean-reverting model) Et(EPSt+1) =
Et(EPSt+1) is the EPS forecast for year t+1, given the information available at t.
The EPS for TJX for the fiscal years ending January 2006 (FY2005) through January 2010 (FY2009) are:
Fiscal Year | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
EPS | $1.40 | $1.60 | $1.70 | $2.00 | $2.80 |
Part a): What would be the EPS forecast in FY2010 for each model?
- Model 1 (random walk model):
- Model 2 (mean-reverting model):
Part b): Actual EPS for TJX in FY2010 was $3.30. Given this information:
- What would be the FY2011 forecast for earnings per share for each model?
- Why do the two models generate quite different forecasts?
- Which model (random walk or mean-reverting) do you think better describes TJXs earnings per share patterns? Explain.
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