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Consider the following two investment decisions: buy a certified deposit (CD) which will pay you a 10% annual interest rate, and buy some stocks

Consider the following two investment decisions: buy a certified deposit (CD) which will pay you a 10% annual

Consider the following two investment decisions: buy a certified deposit (CD) which will pay you a 10% annual interest rate, and buy some stocks which will either give you a 30% annual return (with 0.7 probability) or incur a 10% loss for you (with 0.3 probability). In terms of expected utility, you should, of course, buy stocks. However, suppose you are conservative and cannot tolerate any loss of your principal. In this case, you have no choice but to deposit your money into a CD. Now consider this problem for a 3-year time span. You start with 1 unit of money. Each year you can choose only one way to invest your entire fund (meaning you are not allowed to diversify, like 50% CD, 50% stocks). You definitely don't want to lose any money at the end of the 3 years, but you are okay with a "temporary" loss during the time (for example, it is okay for you to lose some money in the first year as long as you can make it up later). Formalize this problem as a Markov decision process and compute its optimal policy.

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SOLUTION To formalize the problem as a Markov decision process MDP we need to define the states actions transition probabilities rewards and the goal States The state at any time during the 3year time ... blur-text-image

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