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Consider the HMM where the underlying Markov chain is given by the state transition diagram below. The observations are such that the true state is
Consider the HMM where the underlying Markov chain is given by the state transition diagram below. The observations are such that the true state is observed 50% of the time and each other state is observed 25% of the time. If the state is initially a, your starting belief is that you are in state a with probability 1 , and your next two observations are b and c, what is your belief distribution about what state you are now in?