Consider this time series from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) reflecting U.S. economic expansions and recessions. In this series, 1 indicates the U.S. economy is contracting (or in recession), and 0 indicates that the U.S. economy is expanding. FRED - NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough 0.9 0.B 0.7 0.6 +1 or 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 .01 1860 1880 1900 1920 1040 1960 1980 2000 2020 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis fred.stlouisted.org As a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. economy was recently in a deep recession. As a result, there is interest in a statistical predictor that focuses on the likelihood of economic recession in the future. . Given the materials presented in class to date, describe why this approach is a different use case than evaluating the impact of an intervention, such as Opportunity Zones in Question 1. . How would you propose to develop a statistical predictor of future economic recessions? What macroeconomic measures do you believe to be predictive of an economic recovery and why? Suppose, having developed a predictive model of economic recession, you obtain an R2 metric of 0.091. When you present your results publicly, the Chief Economist of a prominent brokerage firm says, "That's a small R2." How would you respond and why