Cost Estimation Template Summary This model sums several line items to project total cost. The primary objective of this model is to run simple simulation to determine the Certainty % for an estimate. Discussion This simple example requires the user to input the minimum, most likely, and least likely values for each item. Define Triangular distribution for the Most Likely values. Run Simulation. Using Crystal Ball Crystal Ball simulates the uncertainty in each cost line item and helps you to determine the probability of over-running the original single-point estimate. 1. Enter project cost items in table.
2. Input minimum, most likely, and maximum costs for each item.
3. Define Assumptions for 'Most Likely' cells using your Min and Max values.
4. Run simulation.
5. Determine the 85% confidence interval for your forecast (i.e Project Cost Estimate)
Note: Do not leave blank cells.
Project Cost Assumptions
Item	Min	Most Likely	Max
Project Management
Hardware
Software
Misc
Project Cost Estimate			0.00

Use the excel file in Session 9 Topic 9e Worksheet to run a simulation with your input. There are two tabs in the worksheet: "Description" and "Model". Read the description first before you run the simulation in Model tab.

1. What is your range for 85% Certainty? Make sure to attach your simulation worksheet.

2. Post any issues you encountered during this exercise