Could you explain in detail that of the EBITDA increase, how much is down to volume increase? How much to overhead cost reduction? Which factors have the greatest control?
Do you think the projected level of EDITDA is achievable? What range would you expect 2010 EBITDA to be in?
3. Profit and Loss Account Sales 47,673.1 50,980.4- 54,364.? 61 ,494.5 65,801 .5 69,7803 6.8% Cost of Sales (31 ,623.1) (34,024.?) (36,3566) (43,169.2) (45,227.3) (43,915.1) 7.2% Contribution 16,050.!) 15,955.? 18, 007.9 1 6,325.3 20,574.2 25,665. 5 5.9% Pmdjcflcn Operetjm Overheads (5,465.8) (5,502.1 ) (5,773.2) (5,837.4) (5,704.0) (5,334.3) 2.3% Manufacturing Services Overheads (986.5) (1 1135.4) (948.?) (1 ,0705) (1 1140.0) (972.8) (1.9%) Rent and Rates (4,515.8) (3,362.5) (3,447.2) (3,704.5) (3,848.5) (3,292.9) (12.6%) Central Overheede (2,999.8) (3,099.4) (2,315.3) (2,923.0) (2,933.5) (3,027.2) (3.1%) EBITDA 2,082.1 3,956.3 5,020.5 4,989.6 6,993.2 13,238.6 55.3% Key Performance Indicators Sales volume (000 Cases) 9,025.1 9,536.8 10,071.2 10,173.2 10,456.8 10,963.? 5.6% Case Price (5-3) 5.28 5.35 5.40 6.04 3.29 6.36 1.1% Cost of Sales 1' Case (52) (3.50) (3.57) (3.61} (4.24) (4.33) (4.00) 1.5% Contribution per Case 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.80 1.97 2.36 Contribution Margin (es) 33. 7% 33.3% 33.1% 29.3% 31.3% 37.1% (0.3%) EBerA mi) 4.4% 7.3% 9.2% s. 1% 10.6% 19.0% 45.4% Notes: CAGR = Compound Annuof Growth Rate (Percent) EBITDA: Earnings Before interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amartisation The business seiis products to retaiiers in Cases, cardboard boxes of product which are typicaiiy transported on paiiets. These are held in store and baked off on demand. Commentary Historical EBITDA growth has been driven by volume growth - contribution margin has remained broadly constant in percentage terms whilst overhead costs have reduced by circa 1.0m from 14.0m to 13.0m. EBITDA is forecast to increase to 19% of sales driven by: 0 increasing volumes; 0 increasing contribution margins; 0 further reductions in overhead costs. Question: Of the forecast EBITDA increase, how much (in Em) is down to volume increases, how much to contribution margin increases and how much to overhead cost reduction. Of these factors, which does Management have the greatest control over? 6.5% 0.9% 15.8% (2- 7%) (4- 7%) i5 7%) 1.8% 62.9% 3.5% 2.6% (2.9%) 11.5% 52.9%