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Could you help me with the following uncertainty problem? Exercise 2: Uncertainty The prevalence of a disease among a certain population is 40%. That is,

Could you help me with the following uncertainty problem?

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Exercise 2: Uncertainty The prevalence of a disease among a certain population is 40%. That is, there is a :10 percent chance that a person randomly selected from the population will have the disease. An imperfect test that costs $250 is available to help identify those who have the disease before actual symptoms appear. Those who have the disease have a 90' percent chance of a positive test result; those who do not have the disease have a 5 percent chance ofa positive test. Treatment of the disease before the appearance of symptoms costs $2, 000 and inicts additional costs of $200I on those who do not actually have the disease. Treatment of the disease after symptoms have appeared costs $10,000. The government is considering the following possible strategies with respect to the disease: u 51. Do not test and do not treat early. 0 52. Do not test and treat early. - S3.Test and treat early if positive and do not treat early if negative. Find the treatment)\" testing strategy that has the lowest expected costs for a member of the population. Note: In doing this exercise, the following notation may be helpful: Let D indicate pres ence of the disease, N D absence of the disease, Pas a positive test result, and Neg a negative test result. Thus, we have the following information: P (D) = 0.4 which implies: P (ND) 2 0.6 PI[P05 I D} = 0.9 which implies: P{Ne_q | D} = 0.] P(Pcs | ND) = 0.05 which implies: P(Ne_q | ND) = 0.95

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