Question
Could you please help finding the correct answer to the following questions below? The managers of a soft drinks company are planning their production strategy
Could you please help finding the correct answer to the following questions below?
The managers of a soft drinks company are planning their production strategy for next summer. The demand for their products is closely linked to the weather, and an analysis of weather records suggests the following probability distribution for the June to August period:
Weather conditions
Probability
Hot and dry
0.3
Mixed
0.5
Cold and wet
0.2
1
The table below shows the estimated profits ($000s) whichwill accruefor the different production strategies and weather conditions:
Weather conditions
Production strategy
Hot&dry
Mixed
Cold&wet
Plan for high sales
400
100
-100
Plan for medium sales
200
180
70
Plan for low sales
110
100
90
On the basis of the information given,determine thecourse of action which will maximize expectedprofits!
A long-range weather forecast suggests that nextsummer's weatherconditions will, in general, be cold and wet. Thereliability oftheforecast is indicated by the followingprobabilities whicharebased on past performance:
p(cold,wet conditions forecast when weather will behotanddry) = 0.3
p(cold,wet conditions forecast when weather willbemixed) = 0.4
p(cold,wet conditions forecast when weather will becoldandwet) =0.6
In the light of the long-range weather forecast, should the company change from the course of action you recommended before?
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