Question
Country New Zealand Four-year time period 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Geometric Avg Inflation Rate: US 2.8 2.9 2.3 1.5 2.2 3.4 ? Inflation
Country | New Zealand | ||||||
Four-year time period | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | Geometric Avg |
Inflation Rate: US | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | ? |
Inflation Rate: Foreign Country | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | -0.1 | 2.6 | ? |
Interest Rate: US | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 6.5 | ? |
Interest Rate: Foreign Country | 9.0 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | ? |
%Change in CD SR(Indirect quote) | -9.5 | -4.6 | 3.8 | 23.4 | 1.4 | 15.9 | ? |
%Change in CD SR(Direct quote) =[1/(1+%change in IQ]-1 | |||||||
PPP Implications: | |||||||
Annual Uncovered Rate (for US) | |||||||
Annual Uncovered Rate (for Canada) | |||||||
Suggest investment strategy based on IFE: ???? |
Use the geometric mean method when calculating averages of rate of returns or percentages.
Please answer the following five questions: Q1. During the assigned time period: US dollar appreciated / depreciated (choose one) in real terms against the currency of foreign country. Q2. During the assigned period, what was the average uncovered rate of return from the US viewpoint for the foreign country? Q3. During the assigned period, what was the average uncovered rate of return from the foreign country's viewpoint? Q4. Based on your answers to questions 2 and 3, given perfect hindsight about interest rates and exchange rate changes during the assigned time period you should have: Invested/ borrowed (choose one) in the US and invested / borrowed (choose one) in foreign country. Q5. Assume that you could both borrow and invest at the average interest rates prevailing in foreign country and in the US during the assigned time period. Also assume that you have a line of credit for one million dollars in the US or an equivalent amount in foreign country. Given perfect hindsight about interest rates and exchange rate changes, please calculate your total profit in dollars using uncovered interest arbitrage during the assigned time period if you followed the strategy chosen in Q4.
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