Country: USA Source FRED and other estimates Preliminary Estimate 2022 Baseline Next year 2023 A. Main Data Observed GDP GDP growth vs previous year Unemployment Rate 1/ Inflation Rate (CPI) 19932 19932.7 1.64% 0.01% 3.7% 4.7% 8.1% 3.2% Interest Rates Federal Fund (monetary policy) Nominal 1.7% 3.6% Real -6.4% 0.4% B. Background Data Potential (Full Employment) GDP 20150.0 20162.8 Output Gap -1.08% -1.14% Civilian Labor Force (millions of people) 161 161.0 Full Employment 153.9 153.9 Employment 155.1 153.5 Employment Rate 96.3% 95.3% Lending Rate (Corporate Baa, source Moody's) Nominal 5.3% 7.2% Real -2.8% -3.2% Interest rate spread Corporate bond minus central bank 3.6% 3.6% Interest Rate Government Debt Implicit spread (Government debt minus FFR) 4.2% 0.6% Government Debt (Source: CBO and author's estimates) Billion Dollars 24,173 25,990 in percent of GDP 96.6% 100.6%