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COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planner 10,000,000 1,000,000 ' ' I .396 the e >999b Chance >999!) Chance O 4 400.000 1 00.000 Number of COVlD-19

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COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planner 10,000,000 1,000,000 ' ' I .396 the e >999b Chance >999!) Chance O 4 400.000 1 00.000 Number of COVlD-19 Cases in USA 1 0.000 1 o 1 00 1 ,000 10,000 1 00,000 Party Wedding Concert NBA Game Rose Bowl Number of People at Event Figure 2. The probability that at least one individual at an event of a given size (x-axis) is positive for COVID-IQ, given the number of cases currently circulating in the USA (yaxis). This graph estimates the probability that there is 2 1 infected individual based upon the size of the group and the number of cases. Probability is calculated as Probability = 1 (1 PI)" where P, = C/K, C is the number of actively circulating cases in the US, K is the population of the US (330x106), and n is the number of people at an event. Calculation assumes homogeneous risk across the USA} A. (i) What do the x- and y-axis represent? (ii) What do the diagonal lines (1% Chance, 2% Chance, 10% Chance, etc.) represent? How do you think these lines were calculated

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