Data information: The Vintage Restaurant on Captiva Island in Florida is owned and operated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its third year of operation. To better plan for future growth of the restaurant, Karen needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. The sales data in the Excel table shows the value of food and beverage sales ($1,000s) for the first three years of operation.

Using this Data please answer question 3 below:

1. A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series.

2. Using the dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year (Hint: Use both linear trend and seasonal effects in your regression model.)

3. Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $295,000. What is your forecast error for this month?

\begin{tabular}{rr} Month & Sales (\$1,000s) \\ 1 & 242 \\ 2 & 235 \\ 3 & 232 \\ 4 & 178 \\ 5 & 184 \\ 6 & 140 \\ 7 & 145 \\ 8 & 152 \\ 9 & 110 \\ 10 & 130 \\ 11 & 152 \\ 12 & 206 \\ 13 & 263 \\ 14 & 238 \\ 15 & 247 \\ 16 & 193 \\ 17 & 193 \\ 18 & 149 \\ 19 & 157 \\ 20 & 161 \\ 21 & 122 \\ 22 & 130 \\ 23 & 167 \\ 24 & 230 \\ 25 & 282 \\ 26 & 255 \\ 27 & 265 \\ 28 & 205 \\ 29 & 210 \\ 30 & 160 \\ 31 & 166 \\ 32 & 174 \\ 33 & 126 \\ 34 & 148 \\ 35 & 173 \\ 36 & 235 \end{tabular}