date	sales
Jan-95	1664,81
Feb-95	2397,53
Mar-95	2840,71
Apr-95	3547,29
May-95	3752,96
Jun-95	3714,74
Jul-95	4349,61
Aug-95	3566,34
Sep-95	5021,82
Oct-95	6423,48
Nov-95	7600,60
Dec-95	19756,21
Jan-96	2499,81
Feb-96	5198,24
Mar-96	7225,14
Apr-96	4806,03
May-96	5900,88
Jun-96	4951,34
Jul-96	6179,12
Aug-96	4752,15
Sep-96	5496,43
Oct-96	5835,10
Nov-96	12600,08
Dec-96	28541,72
Jan-97	4717,02
Feb-97	5702,63
Mar-97	9957,58
Apr-97	5304,78
May-97	6492,43
Jun-97	6630,80
Jul-97	7349,62
Aug-97	8176,62
Sep-97	8573,17
Oct-97	9690,50
Nov-97	15151,84
Dec-97	34061,01
Jan-98	5921,10
Feb-98	5814,58
Mar-98	12421,25
Apr-98	6369,77
May-98	7609,12
Jun-98	7224,75
Jul-98	8121,22
Aug-98	7979,25
Sep-98	8093,06
Oct-98	8476,70
Nov-98	17914,66
Dec-98	30114,41
Jan-99	4826,64
Feb-99	6470,23
Mar-99	9638,77
Apr-99	8821,17
May-99	8722,37
Jun-99	10209,48
Jul-99	11276,55
Aug-99	12552,22
Sep-99	11637,39
Oct-99	13606,89
Nov-99	21822,11
Dec-99	45060,69
Jan-00	7615,03
Feb-00	9849,69
Mar-00	14558,40
Apr-00	11587,33
May-00	9332,56
Jun-00	13082,09
Jul-00	16732,78
Aug-00	19888,61
Sep-00	23933,38
Oct-00	25391,35
Nov-00	36024,80
Dec-00	80721,71
Jan-01	10243,24
Feb-01	11266,88
Mar-01	21826,84
Apr-01	17357,33
May-01	15997,79
Jun-01	18601,53
Jul-01	26155,15
Aug-01	28586,52
Sep-01	30505,41
Oct-01	30821,33
Nov-01	46634,38
Dec-01	104660,67

Derive monthly souvenir sales forecasts using an model, which has been calibrated on the estimation sample (the forecasting horizon is fixed to 1 month). Make a qualitative assessment of the goodness-of-fit of your calibrated model and compute its and in the forecasting period. Is the model considered a better forecasting device?