Date	Sales
Mar-05	6.44
Jun-05	4.85
Sep-05	4.67
Dec-05	5.77
Mar-06	6.22
Jun-06	4.25
Sep-06	4.14
Dec-06	5.34
Mar-07	6.07
Jun-07	4.36
Sep-07	4.07
Dec-07	5.84
Mar-08	6.06
Jun-08	4.24
Sep-08	4.2
Dec-08	5.43
Mar-09	6.56
Jun-09	4.25
Sep-09	3.92
Dec-09	5.26
Mar-10	6.65
Jun-10	4.42
Sep-10	4.09
Dec-10	5.51
Mar-11	6.61
Jun-11	4.25
Sep-11	3.98
Dec-11	5.55
Mar-12	6.24
Jun-12	4.34
Sep-12	4
Dec-12	5.36
Mar-13	6.4
Jun-13	3.84
Sep-13	3.53
Dec-13	4.74
Mar-14	5.37
Jun-14	3.57
Sep-14	3.32
Dec-14	5.09
Mar-15	6.03
Jun-15	3.98
Sep-15	3.57
Dec-15	4.92
Mar-16	6.16
Jun-16	3.79
Sep-16	3.39
Dec-16	4.51

Date	Actual Sales	Forecast Sales	Error	Absolute Error	Absolute % Error
Mar-17	5.39
Jun-17	3.56
Sep-17	3.03
Dec-17	4.03
				MAPE =

Susane is the marketing head for a propane gas distributor. She would like to have a forecast of sales on a quarterly basis, and he has asked you to work out a time-series decomposition model. The data for 2005 through 2016 is given in the table above.

• For Cycle factor in forecast period - use the factor of Mar 2013-Dec 2013. As the current cycle closely represents that cycle (you can visualize this by plotting Cycle factor againt a unit 1 line)

1. What is the forecast for 1st quarter of 2017? (round to 2 decimal)

2. What is the forecast for 2nd quarter of 2017? (round to 2 decimal)

3. What is the forecast for 3rd quarter of 2017? (round to 2 decimal)

4. What is the forecast for 4th quarter of 2017? (round to 2 decimal)

5. What is the out-of sample MAPE for the 4 periods in 2017? (Do not use % sign, and round to 2 decimal)