- Decision Making under Risk (Expected Value Rule) Problem 5. For Fletcher, Cooper, and Wainwright, find the best decision using the expected value rule. The probabilities for the events are given below. Event Land Routes Land moSea Routes Routes piloq lozen No treaty Treaty Only ba Alternative (0.5) (0.3) (0.2) Arrows Barrels Wagons $840,000 $440,000 $190,000 $370,000 $25,000 $220,000 $1,150,000 ($25,000) $670,000 bosJ bal What alternative has the highest expected payoff? 000,0+18