(Decision Making Under Uncertainty) As the marketing manager of a major perfume company, you are considering using either one of two ingredients, Neroli oil or Orris root, in the newest perfume to be launched by the company. The cost to use Orris root is much more expensive in comparison to Neroli oil, but the company might not gain a substantial amount of business if it doesn't use Orris root as an ingredient. You have developed the following payoff table, estimating the company's first year profits. Estimated 1st Year Profit (in $ million) Scenarios of Demand Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Neroli Oil 2 4 5 Orris Root -1 10 15 Apply an appropriate decision analysis technique and recommend what decision will you make and why? (Describe the technique you would apply and the reason for selecting that technique) (13 points)

Estimated 1st Year Profit (in $ million) Scenarios of Demand Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Neroli Oil 2 4 5 Orris Root -1 10 15