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Derive the probability distribution of the 1-year HPR on a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond with an 3.5% coupon if it is currently selling at par

Derive the probability distribution of the 1-year HPR on a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond with an 3.5% coupon if it is currently selling at par and the probability distribution of its yield to maturity a year from now is as follows: (Assume the entire 3.5% coupon is paid at the end of the year rather than every 6 months. Assume a par value of $100.)

Economy Probability YTM Price Capital Gain Coupon Interest HPR
Boom 0.25 12.0 % $ $ $ %
Normal Growth 0.40 10.0 % $ $ $ %
Recession 0.35 9.0 % $ $ $ %

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