Determine if the investment should be implemented based on the NPV of the true equivalents of the cash flows.

For this, the risk-free opportunity rate is equal to 8.739% EA.

Likewise, it is recalled that the true equivalent of a cash flow in period t is equal to the product of the cash flow in t times an adjustment coefficient.

In this regard, the adjustment coefficient in the present is equal to 1 and the adjustment coefficients in the future are conceptualized as random variables as follows.

The adjustment coefficient in year 1 is equal to 85%, 86%, 87% ... or 95%. Each value has the same probability.

Consequently, the command RANDOM.INTER (85; 95) / 100 can be used in Excel.

The adjustment coefficient in year t> = 2 is equal to 85%, 86%, 87% ... or 95% of the adjustment coefficient of the previous year (and rounded to the nearest integer). Each value has the same probability.

Consequently, the command RANDOM.ENTER (85 * X; 95 * X) / 100 can be used in Excel where X is the adjustment coefficient of the previous year.

1. Simulate 3000 possible sequences of fit coefficients. Calculate the NPV of the true equivalents in each simulation.

2. Verify if the coefficient of variability of the NPV is less than 2. This value is considered as the maximum acceptable value to implement the investment.

To do this, the expectation of the NPV can be calculated in Excel as AVERAGE (X) and the standard deviation of the NPV as STDEV.M (X)

where X is replaced by the series of 3000 possible values of the NPV of the true equivalents.

3 ano costos ingresos 747 0 9 160 210 10 150 250 3 ano costos ingresos 747 0 9 160 210 10 150 250