Develop a forecast for both unemployment rate for U.S. for July 2024 and Boston for June 2024. You must test at least three different forecasting methods (no more than two iterations of a same method (e.g. you can do 3 month and 6 month Moving Average, but you must test at least one other method). Pick the one you think is the best, and explain why you picked it. Provide the forecast unemployment rate for July 2024 for the U.S. and June 2024 for Boston. Does the forecast "make sense" to you?

At the very least you should answer the following questions:

1. Which criteria you used to choose the forecast (e.g. RMSE, MAD, etc.)? How did different models perform on this criteria (i.e. report actual numbers)? What was the forecast of each model?

2. What is your final forecast based on the model(s)?

3. Do you think it is an under-estimate, over-estimate or fairly reasonable? If you think the rate would be something other than what your method produces, what is your predicted unemployment rate for each? Explain your choice.

UNGRADED BUT SEPARATELY REWARDED PORTION:

What is your final forecast (using the model(s) and/or your subjective judgment) to two decimal points (e.g. 3.11)? Most accurate forecast (not going over the actual rate in a case of a tie) will receive a prize once the actual unemployment rates are announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.*

FRED Graph Observations FRED Graph Observations Federal Reserve Economic Data Link: https:/fred.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Economic Data Help: heps:/fredhelp sbouitted.org Link: http://fred.stlouisfed.org Economic Research Division Help: httpshedhelp.stovisted.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis UNRATENSA Unemployment Rate. Percent. Monthly. Not Seasonally BOST625URN Unemployment Rate in Bot Frequency: Monthly Frequency: Monthly observation_date UNRATENSA 1948-01-01 abiervation_date BOST625URN 4.0 8 1 of 1 1948-02-01 1990-01-01 4.7 5.3 1948-03-01 1990-02-01 5.4 45 1948-04-01 1990-03-01 5 41 40 1948-05-01 1990-04-0 3.4 1948-06-01 1890-05 01 39 948-07-01 1990-06-01 57 1948-08-01 1990-07-01 60 1948-09-01 1990-08-0 62 3.4 1948-10-01 1990-09-01 6 6 1948-11-01 1990-10-01 6.1 33 1980-11-01 1948-12-01 36 1949-01-01 1990-12-01 5.0 6.6 1949-02-01 1991-01-01 5.8 7.7 149-03-01 1991-02-01 79 56 1949-04-01 1991-03-01 6.4 79 1949-05-01 1991-04-01 5.7 7.5 1949-06-01 1991-05-01 1949-07-01 1991-06-01 7.0 1949-08-01 1991-07-01 8.3 6.3 1949-09-01 1991-08-01 5.9 83 1949-10-01 1991-09-01 65 1949-11-01 67 1991-10-01 1949-12-01 1991-11-01 78 60 1950-01-01 1991-12-01 76 7.8 1992-01-01 1950-02-01 7.9 1950-03-01 1992-02-01 87 7.1 1950-04-01 1992-03-01 60 1950-05-01 1992-04-01 1960-06-01 1992-05-Q 66 1950-07-01 1992-06-0 537 1950-08-01 1992-07-01 41 65 1950-09-01 1992-08-01 4.0 1950-10-01 1992-09-01 3.3 8 5 1950-11-01 1992-10-01 7.7 38 1950-12-01 1902-11-01 10 7.6 1992-12-01 1951-01-01 74 4.4 1951-02-01 1993-01-01 8.1 4.2 1951-03-01 1993-02-01 38 7.8 1993-03-01 1951-04-01 74 32 1961-05-01 1993-04-01 29 68 1951-06-01 1993-05-0 6.8 34 951-07-01 1993-06-01 7.1 1951-08-01 1993-07-01 2.9 1951-09-01 1993-08-01 65 3.0 1951-10-01 1993-09-01 65 28 1951-11-01 1993-10-01 6.1 1951-12-01 1993-11-01 57 2.9 1952-01-01 1993-12-01 5 5 3.7 1 52-02-01 1994-01-01 38 6.6 1952-03-01 1994-02-01 63 3.3 1952-04-01 1994-03-01 30 6.1 1952-05-01 1994-04-01 56 2.9 1962-06-01 1994-05-01 32 55 1952-07-01 1994-06-0 59 3.3 1952-08-01 1994-07-01 60 3.1 1952-09-01 1904-08-01 2.7 1994-09-01 1962-10-01 24 1952-11-01 1994-10-0 53 25 1952-12-01 1994-11-01 50 25 1963-01-01 1994-12-01 3.4 1953-02-01 1995-01-01 57 32 1995-02-01 1953-03-01 20 5.3 1953-04-01 1995-03-01 28 52 953-05-01 1995-04-01 25 1953-06-01 1995-05-01 so 2.7 1953-07-01 1995 06 0 1953-08-01 1995-07-01 24 53 1963-09-01 1995-08-01 2.6 1953-10-01 1995-09-01 so 25 1953-11-01 1995-10-01 32 1963-12-01 1905-11-01 42 1954-01-01 1995-12-01 1954-02-01 1996-01-0 63 49 1954-03-01 1996-02-01 46 1954-04-01 1996-03-01 45 6.1 1996-04-01 1954-05-01 57 $54-06-01 1996-05-01 57 42 1964-07-01 1996-06-01 57 1954-08-01 1996-07-01 44 sat 1996-08-01 1954-09-01 40 1954-10-01 1906-09-01 41 4.6 1954-11-01 1996-10-01 37 4.9 1954-12-01 1996-11-01 36 1956-01-01 1996-12-01 3.5 5.8 1965-02-01 1997-01-01 1965-03-01 1997-02-01 4.1 1955-04-01 1997-03-01 4.0 1956-05-01 1997-04-01 35 1956-06-01 4.4 1997-05-01 36 1955-07-01 1997-06-0 40 40 1955-08-01 1997-07-01 3.9 1956-09-01 1997-08-01 37 3.5 1956-10-01 1997-09-01 3.7 1955-11-01 1997-10-01 32 38 1956-12-01 1097-11-01 30 29 1956-01-01 1997-12-01 4.7 1956-02-01 1998-01-01 3.6 4.8 1956-03-01 1998-02-01 3.4 47 1956-04-01 1998-03-01 3.4 4.1 1956-05-01 42 1998-04-01 2.7 1998 05-01 1956-06-01 29 1956-07-01 1998-06-01 3.3 1956-08-01 1998-07-0 37 1956-09-01 34 1998-08-01 30 1956-10-01 1998-09-01 32 31 1956-11-01 1998-10-01 27 3.9 1956-12-01 1998-11-01 4.0 26 1957-01-01 1998-12-01 26 40 1957-02-01 1909-01-01 3.3 1967-03-01 1999-02-01 33 4.3 1967-04-01 1999-03-01 40 3.1 1999-04-01 1957-05-01 39 1999-05-01 1967-06-01 29 4.6 1967-07-01 1999-06-0 41 3.3 1957-08-01 1999-07-01 3.3 1957-09-01 1999-08-01 37 30 1967-10-01 1999-09-01 32 3.6 1957-11-01 1999-10-01 4.6 27 1957-12-01 1999-11-01 26 50 1958-01-01 1999-12-01 25 1958-02-01 2000-01-01 7.7 1958-03-01 2000-02-01 7.7 32 1958-04-01 2000-03-01 30 7.5 1958-05-01 2000-04-01 24 7.1 1958-06-01 2000-05-0 7.6 1958-07-01 74 2000-06-01 28 1958-08-01 67 2000-07-01 28 1968-09-01 2000-08-0 25 60 1958-10-01 2000-09-01 5.5 1958-11-01 2000-10-01 56 2.1 1968-12-01 2000-11-01 6.0 2.1 1959-01-01 2000-12-0 22 7.0 1959-02-01 2001-01-01 70 32 1959-03-01 2001-02-01 3.1 1959-04-01 2001-03-01 6.2 2001-04-01 3.0 2001-05-01 32 2001-06-01 37