Discuss 2-3 things that you see as key takeaways from the discussion of Risk Analysis in Investment Decisions? Why are these relevant concepts for a financial manager and how might you see applying this content in your decision-making?

Do not answer the questions within the text (1-4).

Please No plagiarism

THE INVESTMENT DETECTIVE

The essence of capital budgeting and resource allocation is a search for good investments in which to place the firms capital. The process can be simple when viewed in purely mechanical terms, but a number of subtle issues can obscure the best investment choices. The capital-budgeting analyst, therefore, is necessarily a detective who must winnow bad evidence from good. Much of the challenge is in knowing what quantitative analysis to generate in the first place.

Suppose you are a new capital-budgeting analyst for a company considering investments in the eight projects listed in Exhibit 1. The chief financial officer of your company has asked you to rank the projects and recommend the four best that the company should accept.

In this assignment, only the quantitative considerations are relevant. No other project characteristics are deciding factors in the selection, except that management has determined that projects 7 and 8 are mutually exclusive.

All the projects require the same initial investment, $2 million. Moreover, all are believed to be of the same risk class. The firms weighted average cost of capital has never been estimated. In the past, analysts have simply assumed that 10% was an appropriate discount rate (although certain officers of the company have recently asserted that the discount rate should be much higher).

To stimulate your analysis, consider the following questions:

1. Can you rank the projects simply by inspecting the cash flows?

2. What criteria might you use to rank the projects? Which quantitative ranking methods are better? Why?

3. What is the ranking you found by using quantitative methods? Does this ranking differ from the ranking obtained by simple inspection of the cash flows?

4. What kinds of real investment projects have cash flows similar to those in Exhibit 1?

Exhibit 1 THE INVESTMENT DETECTIVE Projects' Free Cash Flows dollars in thousands) Project ausber Initial invese2,00) (2000 2000) 2,000) 2000) 2,000 S000 (2,000) S 330 5 1,666 334 5 160 280 2,200 1,200 5 (330 1,200 1,000 $10,000- $(2,000) $ 280 Sum of cash flow 3,310 2,165 $10000 3,561 $4,20 ,20 2,50 4,150 Excess of cash flowt initial invest3O 165 S 8,000 ,561 2,200 200 560 52,150 Indicates yin which payback was acoomplished