Diseases tend to spread according to the exponential growth model. In the early days of AIDS, the growth factor (i.e. common ratio; growth multiplier) was around 2.2. In 1983, about 1700 people in the U.S. died of AIDS. If the trend had continued unchecked, how many people would have died from AIDS in 2006? people (Note: once diseases become widespread, they start to behave more like logistic growth, but don't worry about that for the purpose of this exercise)