Question
Do my caculations seem correct? Daily hire rate forecasting Ship year (SY) Estimated annual shipments (millions of tons) (% change in demand) Industry forecast for
Do my caculations seem correct?
Daily hire rate forecasting Ship year (SY) Estimated annual shipments (millions of tons) (% change in demand) Industry forecast for the ship supply Estimated net capacity (new order - scrap) x2 (% change in supply) Dail hire rate forecast *Model: y = 0.007 + 1.4'Xl - 1.6'x2 y (% change in daily hire rate) Estimated daily hire rates ($000s) Avg. daily hire rate in 2050 = $50 thousand (given) 2050 3,415 3,375 50.0 2051 3,489 0.022 3,447 0.021 0.003 50.160 2052 SYO 3,559 0.020 3,519 0.021 0.002 50.244 2053 SYI 3,634 0.021 3,591 0.020 0.004 0.433 2054 SY2 3,703 0.019 3,663 0.020 0.002 50.509 2055 SY3 3,773 0.019 3,744 0.022 -0.002 50.412 2056 SY4 3,833 0.016 3,933 0.050 -0.052 47.816 2057 SY5 3,887 0.014 4,140 0.053 0.007 2058 SY6 3,946 0.015 4,248 0.026 -0.013 2059 SY7 4,007 0.015 4,356 0.025 -0.012 46.929 2060 SY8 4,061 0.013 4,509 0.035 -0.030 45.506 2061 SY9 4,129 0.017 2062 SYIO 4,191 0.015 4,815 4,968 0.068 1 0.032 2063 SYII 4,258 0.016 5,049 0.016 0.003 41.128 2064 SY12 4,319 0.014 5,157 0.021 -0.007 2065 SY13 4,381 0.014 5,211 0.010 0.010 2066 SY14 4,449 0.016 5,193 -().003 0.034 2067 SY15 4,511 0.014 5,139 -0.010 0.043 2068 SY16 4,586 0.017 5,139 0.000 0.030 2069 SY17 4,647 0.013 2070 SY18 4,717 0.015 5,220 5,283 0.016 1 0.012 0.000 0.009 2071 SY19 4,793 0.016 5,301 0.003 0.024 2072 SY20 4,863 0.015 5,310 0.002 0.025 2073 SY21 4,938 0.015 5,499 0.036 -0.028 2074 SY22 5,007 0.014 5,751 0.046 -0.047 2075 SY23 5,085 0.016 6,057 0.053 -0.056 2076 SY24 5,161 0.015 6,165 0.018 -0.001 2077 SY25 5,239 0.015 6,237 0.012 0.009 48.150 | 47.501 -0.078 41.950 | -0.023 40.993 40.833 | 41.255 | 42.668 44.509 | 45.857 | 45.876 | 46.278 | 47.394 48.566 47.189 | 44.982 42.449 42.423 | 42.825 |
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