Do you agree with the existing financial assumptions in the Deutsche Bank forecast? If so, why? If not, what adjustments would you make to the model? defend the basis of your forecast for Whole Foods performance
Case 7 Whole Foods Market: The Deutsche Bank Report 125 EXHIBIT 7.7 | Deutsche Bank Modellin millions of USD, except per share figures) At Fiscal Year End Actual 2011 Actual 2012 Actual 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast 2015 8.1% Store Growth Sales Growth EBITDA Margin Tax Rate 7.7% 15.7% 9.0% 38.4% 12.6% 14.0% 9.8% 39.0% 9.5% 38.8% 4.0% 12.2% 8.5% 38.1% 7.0 10.5 6.4 1.00 10.5% 11.1% 9.4% 39.0% 7.0 6.5 10.7 10.5 Current Asset Turnover Current Liabilities Turnover Net PP&E/Store Annual Dep. & Amort/Store 10.5 6.7 6.7 0.94 0.94 6.7 0.94 400 14,351 1,352 5.6 10.9 6.5 0.93 335 11.699 1,055 311 744 286 458 364 1.26 Stores Sales EBITDA Dep. & Amort. EBIT Taxes Net Income Shares Outstanding Earnings per Share Current Assets Current Liabilities Net Working Capital Net PP&E Return on Capital 376 311 10,108 859 311 548 209 339 350 0.97 362 12,917 1.222 339 883 343 540 372 1.45 976 381 596 372 1.60 450 16,360 1,600 423 1,176 459 717 372 1.93 2,304 1,406 1,453 880 573 1,997 2,103 977 1,126 2,193 13.8% 898 1,980 1,088 892 2,428 16.3% 2,050 1.238 812 2.680 17.1% 3,018 18.39 13.2% Data source: Company financial reports, Deutsche Bank research, and author estimates Case 7 Whole Foods Market: The Deutsche Bank Report 125 EXHIBIT 7.7 | Deutsche Bank Modellin millions of USD, except per share figures) At Fiscal Year End Actual 2011 Actual 2012 Actual 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast 2015 8.1% Store Growth Sales Growth EBITDA Margin Tax Rate 7.7% 15.7% 9.0% 38.4% 12.6% 14.0% 9.8% 39.0% 9.5% 38.8% 4.0% 12.2% 8.5% 38.1% 7.0 10.5 6.4 1.00 10.5% 11.1% 9.4% 39.0% 7.0 6.5 10.7 10.5 Current Asset Turnover Current Liabilities Turnover Net PP&E/Store Annual Dep. & Amort/Store 10.5 6.7 6.7 0.94 0.94 6.7 0.94 400 14,351 1,352 5.6 10.9 6.5 0.93 335 11.699 1,055 311 744 286 458 364 1.26 Stores Sales EBITDA Dep. & Amort. EBIT Taxes Net Income Shares Outstanding Earnings per Share Current Assets Current Liabilities Net Working Capital Net PP&E Return on Capital 376 311 10,108 859 311 548 209 339 350 0.97 362 12,917 1.222 339 883 343 540 372 1.45 976 381 596 372 1.60 450 16,360 1,600 423 1,176 459 717 372 1.93 2,304 1,406 1,453 880 573 1,997 2,103 977 1,126 2,193 13.8% 898 1,980 1,088 892 2,428 16.3% 2,050 1.238 812 2.680 17.1% 3,018 18.39 13.2% Data source: Company financial reports, Deutsche Bank research, and author estimates