DOR HOW 400 600 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Date Figure 1: Series of daily mean river flows for River Lune. 1. A developer wishes to see whether a particular location on the banks of the River Lune would be suitable for future development. Using a series of daily mean river flows, see Figure 1, he would like to obtain estimates of the 10 and 50-year return levels for the flow. In your answers, denote the data by 31, ..., yn and assume that these are IID. (a) Discuss how you would use a threshold approach to model the upper (2%) tail of the data. You should state what distribution you would fit and what parameters you would need to estimate.