Question
Download the State Crime Excel sheet; row 2 gives detailed descriptions of each variable, while row 4 gives short versions that should be used in
Download the "State Crime" Excel sheet; row 2 gives detailed descriptions of each variable, while row 4 gives short versions that should be used in your regressions. Estimate the following multiple regression models (remember that all of your independent variables will have to be in adjacent columns in Excel). Look at each set of results critically and consider how you would interpret the strengths and weaknesses of each model. Save your results from each model for use when completing the end-of-module assessment. Use "Robbery" as your dependent variable in each model. The notation f(X, Y, Z) means "a function of X, Y, Z; i.e., X, Y, and Z are your independent variables. Even though it isn't listed, each model will include an intercept. NOTE: when Excel reports a value like 2.4E-06, this is scientific notation for 2.4 * (10^-6), or 0.0000024.
Model A: Robbery = f(%Metro, %Poverty, Rain)
Model B: Robbery = f(Population, %SameHouse, MedianAge)
Model C: Robbery = f(Population, %SameHouse, MedAgeMale)
Model D: Robbery = f(Population, %SameHouse, MedAgeFemale)
Model E: Robbery = f(CarTheft, %Unemploy, %Bachelors+, Temp)
Model F: Robbery = f(CarTheft, %Unemploy, %Bachelors+, Sun)
Model G: Robbery = f(CarTheft, %Unemploy, %Bachelors+, Rain)
The state of South Iowa currently has a robbery rate of 77.5, a 186.3 CarTheft rate, a "%Unemploy" rate of 3.7 (be sure to use 3.7 consistent with the underlying data, not 3.7% or 0.037; be careful of the units on all the variables), a "%Bachelors+" rate of 34.1%, and an average annual temperature of 57.8. Recent economic changes have led to the unemployment rate rising to 4.6. This change will likely be associated with the Robbery rate changing from about 77.5 robberies (per 100,000 inhabitants) to about __???????_robberies.
Table 5, Crime in the United States by State, 2019, Rate per 100,000 inhabitants | Non-crime variables; units are as specified in row 2 descriptors | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Violent crime | Aggravated assault | Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter | Robbery | Property crime | Burglary | Larceny-theft | Motor vehicle theft | Total state population | Per capita disposable personal income, $ | % of state population living in a metropolitan area | % 25 years old and older with a bachelor's degree or higher | unemployment rate, % | % below poverty line | average annual temperature, degrees F | # of sunny days per year | average annual rainfall, inches | % living in same house one year ago | Median age | Median age, Male | Median age, Female | % 18-24/18-64, % of the 18-to-64 year old population that is a young adult (18-24 years old) | % male 18-24/18-64, % of the 18-to-64 year old male population that is a young adult male (18-24 years old) | % female 18-24/18-64, % of the 18-to-64 year old female population that is a young adult female (18-24 years old) | ||
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/downloads/download-printable-files | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
State | Violent | Assault | Murder | Robbery | PropCrime | Burglary | Larceny | CarTheft | Population | PerCapIncome | %Metro | %Bachelors+ | %Unemploy | %Poverty | Temp | Sun | Rain | %SameHouse | MedianAge | MedAgeMale | MedAgeFemale | %young | %youngmale | %youngfemale | |
ALABAMA | 510.8 | 381.0 | 7.3 | 80.4 | 2,674.4 | 531.9 | 1,886.1 | 256.5 | 4,903,185 | 39956 | 76.1% | 26.3% | 3 | 15.6 | 62.8 | 99 | 58.3 | 86.3 | 39 | 36.9 | 39.8 | 16.2% | 16.7% | 15.8% | |
ARIZONA | 455.3 | 311.9 | 5.0 | 88.1 | 2,440.5 | 394.3 | 1,796.9 | 249.4 | 7,278,717 | 41266 | 95.2% | 30.2% | 4.9 | 13.5 | 60.3 | 193 | 13.6 | 82.6 | 37.7 | 35.5 | 38.1 | 16.7% | 17.3% | 16.1% | |
ARKANSAS | 584.6 | 447.8 | 8.0 | 51.6 | 2,858.0 | 599.6 | 2,012.6 | 245.9 | 3,017,804 | 40278 | 63.4% | 23.3% | 3.5 | 16 | 60.4 | 123 | 50.6 | 84.6 | 38.1 | 36.3 | 39 | 16.2% | 16.6% | 15.8% | |
CALIFORNIA | 441.2 | 267.1 | 4.3 | 132.4 | 2,331.2 | 386.1 | 1,586.3 | 358.8 | 39,512,223 | 57497 | 97.9% | 35.0% | 4.2 | 11.8 | 59.4 | 146 | 22.2 | 87.1 | 36.5 | 34.6 | 37 | 16.4% | 16.9% | 16.0% | |
COLORADO | 381.0 | 246.3 | 3.8 | 63.6 | 2,590.7 | 348.4 | 1,858.3 | 384.0 | 5,758,736 | 53704 | 87.6% | 42.7% | 2.7 | 9.4 | 45.1 | 136 | 15.9 | 82.0 | 36.7 | 35.5 | 37.5 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 14.6% | |
CONNECTICUT | 183.6 | 105.0 | 2.9 | 54.1 | 1,426.6 | 180.7 | 1,078.7 | 167.3 | 3,565,287 | 65906 | 83.2% | 39.8% | 3.6 | 9.9 | 49 | 82 | 50.3 | 87.9 | 41 | 38.8 | 42.1 | 15.3% | 16.0% | 14.6% | |
DELAWARE | 422.6 | 304.7 | 4.9 | 81.1 | 2,252.2 | 304.8 | 1,782.7 | 164.7 | 973,764 | 47978 | 100.0% | 33.2% | 3.7 | 11.2 | 55.3 | 97 | 45.7 | 87.4 | 40.6 | 37.9 | 41 | 16.0% | 16.5% | 15.6% | |
FLORIDA | 378.4 | 258.3 | 5.2 | 75.5 | 2,145.7 | 295.2 | 1,668.7 | 181.8 | 21,477,737 | 46339 | 96.8% | 30.7% | 3.3 | 12.7 | 70.7 | 101 | 54.5 | 84.5 | 42 | 40 | 42.9 | 15.0% | 15.6% | 14.5% | |
GEORGIA | 340.7 | 232.0 | 6.2 | 75.0 | 2,375.8 | 372.1 | 1,779.8 | 223.9 | 10,617,423 | 42863 | 83.1% | 32.5% | 3.5 | 13.5 | 63.5 | 112 | 50.7 | 84.9 | 36.7 | 34.7 | 37.3 | 16.0% | 16.7% | 15.4% | |
IDAHO | 223.8 | 167.9 | 2.0 | 8.7 | 1,219.5 | 219.7 | 911.8 | 87.9 | 1,787,065 | 41632 | 74.3% | 28.7% | 2.8 | 11 | 44.4 | 120 | 18.9 | 82.8 | 36.4 | 34.6 | 36.2 | 16.3% | 16.6% | 16.0% | |
ILLINOIS | 406.9 | 254.0 | 6.6 | 98.4 | 1,846.5 | 271.7 | 1,426.6 | 148.2 | 12,671,821 | 51706 | 88.8% | 35.8% | 4 | 11.4 | 51.8 | 95 | 39.2 | 87.3 | 38.1 | 35.9 | 38.6 | 15.5% | 15.9% | 15.0% | |
INDIANA | 370.8 | 249.3 | 5.6 | 79.2 | 1,971.0 | 323.7 | 1,443.4 | 203.8 | 6,732,219 | 43960 | 78.2% | 26.9% | 3.2 | 11.9 | 51.7 | 88 | 41.7 | 85.3 | 37.7 | 36 | 38.6 | 16.5% | 16.9% | 16.1% | |
IOWA | 266.6 | 200.4 | 1.9 | 27.4 | 1,733.7 | 371.1 | 1,199.6 | 163.0 | 3,155,070 | 46508 | 61.4% | 29.3% | 2.8 | 11 | 47.8 | 105 | 34 | 85.2 | 38.2 | 36.6 | 39.4 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 16.7% | |
KANSAS | 410.8 | 314.2 | 3.6 | 44.4 | 2,314.5 | 342.7 | 1,721.9 | 249.9 | 2,913,314 | 47909 | 69.5% | 34.0% | 3.2 | 11.3 | 54.3 | 128 | 28.9 | 83.8 | 36.7 | 34.8 | 37.4 | 17.0% | 17.6% | 16.4% | |
KENTUCKY | 217.1 | 128.6 | 4.9 | 48.4 | 1,897.4 | 345.7 | 1,323.5 | 228.2 | 4,467,673 | 39238 | 59.6% | 25.1% | 4.1 | 16 | 55.6 | 93 | 48.9 | 84.9 | 38.9 | 37 | 39.8 | 15.7% | 16.1% | 15.2% | |
LOUISIANA | 549.3 | 402.1 | 11.7 | 86.6 | 3,162.0 | 579.0 | 2,352.4 | 230.5 | 4,648,794 | 43157 | 84.2% | 25.0% | 4.7 | 18.8 | 66.4 | 101 | 60.1 | 87.2 | 36.9 | 34.8 | 37.4 | 16.3% | 16.7% | 16.0% | |
MAINE | 115.2 | 61.3 | 1.5 | 14.0 | 1,245.6 | 174.8 | 1,016.7 | 54.0 | 1,344,212 | 45455 | 59.5% | 33.2% | 2.7 | 10.9 | 41 | 101 | 42.2 | 86.6 | 44.7 | 42.6 | 45 | 13.8% | 14.3% | 13.3% | |
MARYLAND | 454.1 | 261.3 | 9.0 | 152.2 | 1,950.2 | 278.9 | 1,485.0 | 186.2 | 6,045,680 | 56041 | 97.5% | 40.9% | 3.5 | 9.1 | 54.2 | 105 | 44.5 | 86.4 | 38.7 | 36.6 | 39.8 | 14.9% | 15.6% | 14.2% | |
MASSACHUSETTS | 327.6 | 241.0 | 2.2 | 52.4 | 1,179.8 | 179.0 | 911.8 | 89.0 | 6,892,503 | 62942 | 99.6% | 45.0% | 3 | 9.5 | 47.9 | 98 | 47.7 | 87.3 | 39.5 | 37.8 | 40.8 | 16.1% | 16.5% | 15.8% | |
MICHIGAN | 437.4 | 305.9 | 5.6 | 53.6 | 1,585.0 | 286.1 | 1,121.3 | 177.7 | 9,986,857 | 43787 | 82.0% | 30.0% | 4.1 | 12.9 | 44.4 | 71 | 32.8 | 86.2 | 39.7 | 38.1 | 40.9 | 16.5% | 16.9% | 16.0% | |
MINNESOTA | 236.4 | 135.1 | 2.1 | 55.8 | 2,078.8 | 282.4 | 1,597.5 | 198.9 | 5,639,632 | 51079 | 77.9% | 37.3% | 3.2 | 8.9 | 41.2 | 95 | 27.3 | 85.9 | 38 | 36.6 | 38.7 | 15.0% | 15.2% | 14.8% | |
MISSISSIPPI | 277.9 | 184.6 | 11.2 | 57.1 | 2,375.8 | 627.0 | 1,555.7 | 193.1 | 2,976,149 | 35791 | 48.4% | 22.3% | 5.5 | 19.5 | 63.4 | 111 | 59 | 86.9 | 37.5 | 35 | 37.9 | 17.1% | 17.7% | 16.6% | |
MISSOURI | 495.0 | 357.4 | 9.3 | 80.8 | 2,638.7 | 430.4 | 1,865.0 | 343.3 | 6,137,428 | 43529 | 75.1% | 30.2% | 3.3 | 12.9 | 54.5 | 115 | 42.2 | 84.8 | 38.6 | 36.7 | 39.6 | 16.0% | 16.4% | 15.5% | |
MONTANA | 404.9 | 324.9 | 2.5 | 19.2 | 2,193.2 | 270.1 | 1,700.6 | 222.4 | 1,068,778 | 44457 | 35.8% | 33.6% | 3.6 | 12.6 | 42.7 | 82 | 15.3 | 84.1 | 39.9 | 38.7 | 41.1 | 15.9% | 16.5% | 15.3% | |
NEBRASKA | 300.9 | 192.9 | 2.3 | 40.9 | 2,039.3 | 245.3 | 1,536.3 | 257.7 | 1,934,408 | 49082 | 65.4% | 33.2% | 3 | 9.9 | 48.8 | 117 | 23.6 | 84.1 | 36.5 | 35.1 | 37.4 | 16.5% | 16.8% | 16.2% | |
NEVADA | 493.8 | 312.3 | 4.6 | 106.7 | 2,322.1 | 503.5 | 1,453.0 | 365.6 | 3,080,156 | 45956 | 90.9% | 25.7% | 3.9 | 12.7 | 49.9 | 158 | 9.5 | 82.1 | 38 | 36.7 | 37.9 | 14.5% | 14.6% | 14.3% | |
NEW HAMPSHIRE | 152.5 | 83.7 | 2.4 | 23.0 | 1,209.2 | 126.3 | 1,017.3 | 65.7 | 1,359,711 | 56978 | 63.1% | 37.6% | 2.6 | 7.5 | 43.8 | 90 | 43.4 | 86.1 | 42.9 | 41.4 | 43.3 | 15.1% | 15.4% | 14.8% | |
NEW JERSEY | 206.9 | 122.2 | 2.9 | 64.5 | 1,335.7 | 184.6 | 1,034.7 | 116.4 | 8,882,190 | 61023 | 100.0% | 41.2% | 3.4 | 9.1 | 52.7 | 94 | 47.1 | 89.8 | 39.9 | 37.8 | 41 | 14.3% | 14.9% | 13.6% | |
NEW MEXICO | 832.2 | 650.5 | 8.6 | 111.6 | 3,112.7 | 696.8 | 1,988.8 | 427.2 | 2,096,829 | 39441 | 67.3% | 27.7% | 5 | 17.5 | 53.4 | 167 | 14.6 | 86.7 | 37.8 | 35.5 | 38.4 | 16.5% | 17.1% | 15.9% | |
NEW YORK | 358.6 | 229.0 | 2.9 | 92.9 | 1,373.3 | 141.9 | 1,166.1 | 65.3 | 19,453,561 | 60329 | 93.0% | 37.8% | 3.8 | 13.1 | 45.4 | 63 | 41.8 | 89.5 | 38.8 | 36.6 | 39.8 | 15.8% | 16.3% | 15.3% | |
NORTH CAROLINA | 371.8 | 262.4 | 6.0 | 72.5 | 2,357.3 | 519.1 | 1,666.0 | 172.2 | 10,488,084 | 42513 | 81.1% | 32.3% | 3.8 | 13.6 | 59 | 109 | 50.3 | 84.8 | 38.7 | 36.6 | 39.5 | 15.9% | 16.8% | 15.1% | |
NORTH DAKOTA | 284.6 | 200.6 | 3.1 | 23.5 | 1,977.0 | 342.2 | 1,399.6 | 235.2 | 762,062 | 51669 | 50.2% | 30.4% | 2.3 | 10.5 | 40.4 | 93 | 17.8 | 82.2 | 35.1 | 34.2 | 36.7 | 19.8% | 20.3% | 19.3% | |
OHIO | 293.2 | 163.9 | 4.6 | 75.7 | 2,055.7 | 375.5 | 1,520.4 | 159.7 | 11,689,100 | 44838 | 80.3% | 29.3% | 4.2 | 13 | 50.7 | 72 | 39.1 | 85.3 | 39.4 | 37.7 | 40.7 | 15.6% | 16.0% | 15.2% | |
OKLAHOMA | 431.8 | 307.9 | 6.7 | 59.9 | 2,845.3 | 671.7 | 1,835.5 | 338.1 | 3,956,971 | 42991 | 66.6% | 26.2% | 3.1 | 15.1 | 59.6 | 139 | 36.5 | 83.2 | 36.6 | 34.9 | 37.5 | 16.7% | 17.1% | 16.2% | |
OREGON | 284.4 | 185.5 | 2.8 | 54.0 | 2,730.6 | 349.1 | 2,021.5 | 360.0 | 4,217,737 | 46386 | 84.0% | 34.5% | 3.7 | 11.5 | 48.4 | 68 | 27.4 | 82.9 | 39.3 | 37.9 | 40.1 | 14.8% | 15.1% | 14.5% | |
PENNSYLVANIA | 306.4 | 191.1 | 5.2 | 76.1 | 1,403.4 | 182.4 | 1,124.2 | 96.8 | 12,801,989 | 51473 | 88.7% | 32.3% | 4.5 | 12 | 48.8 | 87 | 42.9 | 87.6 | 40.8 | 38.9 | 42.1 | 15.8% | 16.1% | 15.4% | |
RHODE ISLAND | 221.1 | 132.9 | 2.4 | 39.5 | 1,534.8 | 219.1 | 1,187.5 | 128.2 | 1,059,361 | 50081 | 100.0% | 34.8% | 3.6 | 11.6 | 50.1 | 98 | 47.9 | 87.4 | 39.9 | 38.1 | 41.6 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 17.3% | |
SOUTH CAROLINA | 511.3 | 390.5 | 9.0 | 64.0 | 2,940.3 | 533.4 | 2,116.1 | 290.8 | 5,148,714 | 40874 | 85.7% | 29.6% | 2.8 | 13.9 | 62.4 | 115 | 49.8 | 85.7 | 39.4 | 37 | 40.1 | 16.4% | 17.2% | 15.6% | |
SOUTH DAKOTA | 399.0 | 302.5 | 1.9 | 22.0 | 1,771.0 | 299.1 | 1,273.4 | 198.5 | 884,659 | 49462 | 48.1% | 29.7% | 3 | 11.9 | 45.2 | 104 | 20.1 | 84.2 | 37 | 35.6 | 37.9 | 16.6% | 16.9% | 16.3% | |
TENNESSEE | 595.2 | 456.7 | 7.3 | 90.1 | 2,652.6 | 437.4 | 1,934.4 | 280.9 | 6,829,174 | 44724 | 78.3% | 28.7% | 3.4 | 13.8 | 57.6 | 102 | 54.2 | 85.5 | 38.7 | 37.1 | 39.8 | 15.5% | 16.0% | 15.1% | |
TEXAS | 418.9 | 263.0 | 4.9 | 100.0 | 2,390.7 | 392.8 | 1,730.6 | 267.2 | 28,995,881 | 47705 | 89.3% | 30.8% | 3.5 | 13.6 | 64.8 | 135 | 28.9 | 84.4 | 34.6 | 33.1 | 35 | 16.5% | 17.0% | 15.9% | |
UTAH | 235.6 | 141.4 | 2.2 | 35.1 | 2,169.3 | 276.7 | 1,682.4 | 210.2 | 3,205,958 | 43533 | 89.6% | 34.8% | 2.5 | 8.8 | 48.6 | 125 | 12.2 | 83.1 | 30.8 | 29.6 | 30.6 | 19.4% | 19.4% | 19.3% | |
VERMONT | 202.2 | 144.6 | 1.8 | 11.4 | 1,424.4 | 204.3 | 1,172.3 | 47.8 | 623,989 | 49507 | 35.5% | 38.7% | 2.3 | 10.1 | 42.9 | 58 | 42.7 | 86.7 | 42.9 | 41.1 | 43.5 | 16.7% | 17.4% | 16.1% | |
VIRGINIA | 208.0 | 128.7 | 5.0 | 41.3 | 1,642.7 | 162.8 | 1,359.5 | 120.3 | 8,535,519 | 52015 | 87.7% | 39.6% | 2.7 | 9.9 | 55.1 | 100 | 44.3 | 84.7 | 38.2 | 36.4 | 39 | 15.5% | 16.1% | 15.0% | |
WASHINGTON | 293.9 | 179.9 | 2.6 | 67.6 | 2,681.9 | 453.6 | 1,907.9 | 320.5 | 7,614,893 | 58077 | 89.8% | 37.0% | 4.1 | 9.8 | 48.3 | 58 | 38.4 | 82.3 | 37.7 | 36.5 | 38.6 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 14.6% | |
WEST VIRGINIA | 316.6 | 249.1 | 4.4 | 21.1 | 1,583.4 | 328.7 | 1,119.7 | 135.0 | 1,792,147 | 38399 | 64.5% | 21.1% | 4.9 | 16.2 | 51.8 | 60 | 45.2 | 88.3 | 42.5 | 40.5 | 43 | 15.0% | 15.4% | 14.6% | |
WISCONSIN | 293.2 | 200.0 | 3.0 | 51.4 | 1,471.4 | 217.6 | 1,127.0 | 126.8 | 5,822,434 | 47264 | 74.7% | 31.3% | 3.3 | 10.4 | 43.1 | 89 | 32.6 | 86.0 | 39.5 | 37.8 | 40.1 | 15.7% | 15.9% | 15.5% | |
WYOMING | 217.4 | 147.6 | 2.2 | 11.6 | 1,571.1 | 241.2 | 1,206.7 | 123.2 | 578,759 | 55858 | 31.0% | 29.1% | 3.7 | 9.9 | 42 | 114 | 12.9 | 83.2 | 37.7 | 36.1 | 37.6 | 16.0% | 16.4% | 15.7% |
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