Driving test You are about to take the road test for your drivers license. You hear that only 30% of candidates pass the test the first time, but the percentage rises to 70% on subsequent retests. Estimate the average number of tests drivers take in order to get a license. Your simulation should use at least 20 runs.

Step 1. Set up rules for the simulation, and how you can pair outcomes to random numbers generated from random.org. I assigned each of 10 numbers to the following outcomes. 30% of the candidates passes the Test on the First Time. 70% of the candidates fails the Test on the First Time. Also 70% candidates passes the Test on subsequent Test.

Step 2. Repeat 20 trials of drawing random numbers from random.org until the person passes their driver's license test. Create a table and record the number of tests needed to obtain a Pass result.

Step 3. Take the average of the numbers obtained in Step 2.

Number Test 1 Test 2 Test 3 Test 4 Test x (same rules for subsequent tests) 1 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass 2 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass 3 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass 4 Fail Pass Pass Pass Pass 5 Fail Pass Pass Pass Pass 6 Fail Pass Pass Pass Pass 7 Fail Pass Pass Pass Pass 8 Fail Fail Fail Fail Fail 9 Fail Fail Fail Fail Fail 10 Fail Fail Fail Fail Fail Number Test 1 Test 2 Test 3 Test 4 Test x (same rules for subsequent tests) 1 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass 2 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass 3 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass 4 Fail Pass Pass Pass Pass 5 Fail Pass Pass Pass Pass 6 Fail Pass Pass Pass Pass 7 Fail Pass Pass Pass Pass 8 Fail Fail Fail Fail Fail 9 Fail Fail Fail Fail Fail 10 Fail Fail Fail Fail Fail