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Duncan Windham, a credit analyst for Lakeside Asset Management, is considering an investment in a BBB-rated corporate bond, but worried about the return impact of

Duncan Windham, a credit analyst for Lakeside Asset Management, is considering an investment in a BBB-rated corporate bond, but worried about the return impact of a rating change. Windham developed the rating transition matrix below:

Transition Matrix (%)

From/To

AAA

AA

A

BBB

BB

B

CCC, CC, C

AAA

85.00

11.00

2.50

1.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

AA

0.75

87.00

9.00

3.00

0.15

0.05

0.03

A

0.10

2.50

88.00

8.00

0.70

0.50

0.12

BBB

0.05

1.20

4.50

86.55

5.50

1.50

0.50

BB

0.00

0.50

0.75

5.25

81.25

8.50

2.25

B

0.00

0.05

0.15

1.25

9.00

77.30

8.25

CCC, CC, C

0.00

0.01

0.10

0.89

1.50

18.50

48.50

The average credit spread for each ratings category is:

Rating:

AAA

AA

A

BBB

BB

B

CCC, CC, C

Credit Spread:

0.75%

1.20%

1.60%

2.40%

3.20%

5.30%

10.30%

Windham intends to hold the bond for one year. If the modified duration of the selected bond at the end of the holding period is 6.55 and there is no default what is the expected percentage change in the bonds price due to credit migration?

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