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During the 2010 World Cup group stage, my friend Mahmood wanted me to pay him $5 if Brazil beat Portugal. At the time, I believed

During the 2010 World Cup group stage, my friend Mahmood wanted me to pay him $5 if Brazil beat Portugal. At the time, I believed that Brazil would beat Portugal with a probability of 0.8. For the bet to be fair, how much should Mahmood have paid me if Brazil did not beat Portugal?

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