Question
During year three, Pricilla starting collecting data on why people were buying dresses. She and the people working in the store would ask whether the
During year three, Pricilla starting collecting data on why people were buying dresses. She and the people working in the store would ask whether the purchase was for an event (homecoming, party, prom, or wedding. You noticed that sells were higher in warmer months and decided to use average month temperatures. Also, you decided the separate weddings from other events. The following is a breakdown of the data.
Wedding | Events | Average Monthly Temperature | Year 3 Demand | |
2 | 1 | 32 | 212 | |
0 | 0 | 30 | 245 | |
0 | 5 | 42 | 252 | |
12 | 22 | 50 | 376 | |
45 | 46 | 55 | 757 | |
23 | 22 | 70 | 404 | |
20 | 20 | 75 | 354 | |
10 | 20 | 78 | 324 | |
2 | 32 | 75 | 338 | |
1 | 50 | 60 | 618 | |
1 | 22 | 45 | 356 | |
8 | 60 | 35 | 713 | |
4949 |
Using the dress data above, calculate the following
1. Use Excels regression function to develop a multiple regression forecast for Pricilla Phashions
2. Indicate the r2 of the model, and whether all the coefficients for the regression are significant.
3. Using your regression model, calculate the dress sales for Year-3.
4. Using the actual Year-3 numbers check your forecast accuracy, by calculating CFE, MSE, MAD, MAPE, and the tracking signal
5. Finally, compare the causal forecast model you just developed to the best model that you developed previously. Recommend which forecasting model should Pricilla use.
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