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E = pred. receive grant Prior Si Prior Prob. P(E| S;) P(S|E) conditional Received Grant 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.89 Denied Grant 0.5 0.1 0.05

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E = pred. receive grant Prior Si Prior Prob. P(E| S;) P(S|E) conditional Received Grant 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.89 Denied Grant 0.5 0.1 0.05 0.11 P(E) => 0.45 Steve Hinton, the owner of a small communications research firm, wants to decide whether or not to apply for a research grant from the federal government. Based on the table above, if a consultant were to predict receipt of the grant for Steve's application, what probability should Steve assign to receiving the grant?

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