ECON 313 PAPER INSTRUCTIONS 1. TWO AS/AD ECON GRAPHS FROM THIS COURSE REQUIRED. LENGTH: 800- 1000 WORDS (NOT INCLUDING GRAPHS). GRAPHS CAN BE HAND-DRAWN AND DROPPED INTO THE TEXT. (EASIEST) 2. TOPIC: WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE U.S. ECONOMY IN THE SHORT RUN? (THE NEXT 9 MONTHS THROUGH MARCH 2025). 3. WHAT YOU MUST DO: USING WHAT YOU HAVE LEARNED ABOUT BUSINESS CYCLES AND MONETARY POLICY (AND FISCAL POLICY IF YOU THINK IT IS RELEVANT) IN THE US ECONOMY (CHAPTERS 9, 11, 12, 13, and 14), AND WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN 2020-2023, AND SO FAR THIS YEAR, USE OUR AS- AD FRAMEWORK TO MAKE YOUR OWN 2024-5 FORECAST OF INFLATION, GDP GROWTH, INTEREST RATES, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ANY OTHER VARIABLES YOU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. YOU CAN CERTAINLY DISCUSS THE LIMITATIONS OF OUR MODELS IN YOUR ANALYSIS. YOU CAN CERTAINLY USE ANY OTHER GRAPHS IN ADDITION (PHILLIPS CURVE, OKUN'S LAW, ETC.) THERE IS NO RIGHT OR WRONG ANSWER, THERE ARE ONLY YOUR REASONED ARGUMENTS BACKING UP YOUR FORECAST. YOU WILL NEED TO DISCUSS BOTH FISCAL POLICY AND MONETARY POLICY, AND ANY OTHER POLICIES WHICH YOU THINK WILL AFFECT THE ECONOMY IN THE SHORT- RUN. THERE WILL BE USEFUL IDEAS INCLUDED IN LECTURES. 4. ALL GREEK SYMBOLS ARE AVAILABLE IN MS WORD BY SELECTING INSERT SYMBOL AND PICKING GREEK (, AND BARS ARE TRICKY) 5. YOU CAN USE ANY RELIABLE SOURCES (INCLUDING THE TEXTBOOK) FOR YOUR DISCUSSION. BEST SOURCES FOR CURRENT EVENTS AND FORECASTS ARE: NEW YORK TIMES, WALL STREET JOURNAL, WASHINGTON POST, PS ON POINT, CBO, NIH AND CDC (MEDICAL). THERE ARE PLENTY OF OTHERS! FRED IS ALWAYS GOOD FOR MACROECONOMIC DATA SERIES. THE FED'S WEBSITE HAS ALL OF THEIR POLICY STATEMENTS. THE WHITE HOUSE WEBSITE HAS ALL OF THE PROGRAMS OF PRESIDENT BIDEN. ALSO VERY USEFUL: LOOK AT THE CONFERENCE BOARD WEBSITE FOR THEIR LATEST ECONOMIC FORECAST. 6. CONSULT THE LATEST VERSION OF THE GENERAL GUIDELINES FOR VERY IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND REQUIREMENTS. 7. CORRECT: Fed INCORRECT: FED 8. CORRECT: Treasury INCORRECT: treasury

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GENERAL GUIDELINES FOR PAPERS (3/25/2024 REVISION) 1. DON'T WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE! -10% IF YOU ARE 1 MINUTE LATE. -20% IF YOU ARE ONE DAY AND ONE MINUTE LATE. AND SO ON. 3. DOUBLE-SPACED, 12-POINT TYPE, 1" MARGINS ALL AROUND. THE PAPERS MUST BE SUBMITTED IN CANVAS, AND MUST BE IN .DOCX (WORD) FORMAT. (-5 PTS FOR EACH VIOLATION) GOOGLE DOCS WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED. 4. CHECK YOUR SUBMISSION CAREFULLY BEFORE YOU SUBMIT IT. MAKE SURE "READ-ONLY" IS TURNED OFF! DO NOT USE "REVIEW" MODE WHEN WORKING ON YOUR PAPER. (-5 points if you do) DO NOT USE DASHES IN YOUR PAPER TITLE. 5. ANY REASONABLE FORM OF CITATION IN THE TEXT IS FINE. I JUST NEED TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE YOU GOT YOUR INFORMATION FROM. NO CITATIONS OR REFERENCES? EXPECT TO LOSE AT LEAST 10%, AND PERHAPS BE CHARGED WITH PLAGIARISM. YOUR COLLECTED REFERENCES MUST APPEAR AT THE END OF YOUR PAPER IN A SECTION TITLED "WORKS CITED" AND LINKS MUST ALSO BE DESCRIBED IN ENGLISH. (OTHERWISE -10 POINTS) 6. IF YOU QUOTE A SOURCE, INCLUDING THE TEXTBOOK, PUT IT IN QUOTES AND CITE IT! . 7. THIS IS NOT A FAMILY PROJECT. WRITE IT YOURSELF. (DOC KNOWS A DWI PAPER WHEN HE SEES ONE.) 8. CHATGPT: DOC CAN ALSO RECOGNIZE A PAPER WRITTEN BY AN AI PROGRAM. SO DON'T EVEN BOTHER. 9. SPELLCHECK/GRAMMAR CHECK. (DEDUCTIONS WILL BE APPLIED FOR SLOPPY, CARELESS WRITING.) IF MICROSOFT WORD GIVES YOU A RED UNDERLINE, YOU HAVE MOST LIKELY MADE AN ERROR. IF YOU IGNORE THE RED UNDERLINE, AND IT IS AN ERROR, EXPECT TO LOSE POINTS. 10.THE PAPER MUST INCLUDE AT LEAST 2 (TWO) ECONOMICS GRAPHS. A BAR CHART, LINE CHART, PIE CHART, ETC. ARE OK TOO BUT THEY ARE NOT ECON GRAPHS! THESE GRAPHS CAN BE DRAWN FREEHAND AND SCANNED IN, OR COPIED AND PASTED FROM TEXTBOOK OR ANYWHERE ELSE. IT IS VERY RISKY TO CUT AND

PASTE, BECAUSE THE GRAPH WILL PROBABLY NOT MATCH UP WITH YOUR TEXT. DISCUSS THE GRAPHS IN YOUR PAPER. ANY GRAPHS OR FIGURES SHOULD BE PLACED IN THE TEXT AND NOT AT THE END OF THE PAPER. PRO TIP: MAKE SURE YOUR TEXT DISCUSSION MATCHES WHAT YOU HAVE DRAWN IN YOUR GRAPH. 11. I AM LOOKING FOR ANALYSIS BASED ON WHAT YOU HAVE LEARNED IN THE CLASS. THESE PAPERS DO NOT HAVE A RIGHT OR WRONG ANSWER. 12. NO NEED TO DO ORIGINAL RESEARCH, READ ACADEMIC PAPERS, CONSULT EXPERTS, BUT THESE ARE CERTAINLY OK. QUOTING NON-EXPERTS (WHICH IS MOST OF WHAT IS ON THE WEB) IS A BAD IDEA. DO NOT CITE CNBC, DQYDJ, INVESTOPEDIA, THE BALANCE, KHAN ACADEMY, OPENSTAX, TRADING ECONOMICS, MARKETWATCH, THE DEBT CLOCK WEBSITE, ANY WEBSITE OF A BROKERAGE FIRM OR INVESTMENT OR WEALTH MANAGEMENT FIRM, OR ENCYCLOPEDIAS. DO IT AND GET A DEDUCTION. 13. DO NOT REHASH STUFF (ESPECIALLY DEFINITIONS) WE ALL KNOW. EXAMPLES: GDP, MONETARY POLICY, FISCAL POLICY, AD, AS, ZLB. 14. WRITE A PAPER WITH AN INTRODUCTION, BODY, AND CONCLUSION. NO LISTS, OR BULLET POINTS. 15. DON'T WRITE THE WAY YOU TALK. GONNA END UP TOO SLANGY, DUDE. SAVE THE BUSINESS SLANG FOR OTHER COURSES: NO "TAKEAWAYS," NO "HITS," ETC. YOU DOWN WITH THAT, BRO? 16. EDIT YOUR WORK---CATCH YOUR ERRORS. OTHERWISE I WILL AND I WON'T BE HAPPY. PRO TIP: READ YOUR PAPER OUT LOUD TO SOMEONE. YOU WILL CATCH A LOT OF YOUR ERRORS! 17. WORD CHOICE MATTERS. DOES "MARKET" MEAN ECONOMY? STOCK MARKET? BOND MARKET? OR SOMETHING ELSE? WHO ARE "PEOPLE"? BIG WORDS ARE POWERFUL WEAPONS. USED INCORRECTLY, THEY CAN BACKFIRE. 18. DON'T WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE! 19. LATE PAPERS WILL BE DOCKED 10% PER DAY. 20. WORD COUNT, IF APPLICABLE, DOES NOT INCLUDE REFERENCES or title page 21. "AN ECON GRAPH IS A VISUAL REPRESENTATION OF AT LEAST SOME PART OF AN ECONOMIC MODEL, WHICH IS ITSELF COMPOSED OF RELATIONSHIPS AMONG VARIABLES." ---doc