Elizabeth Barton, the mad maid of Kent as a teller of divine proclamations. She became a nun and so was investigated first by the church to ensure she did not offend the teachings of the church.

Eventually Elizabeth met Cardinal Wolsey (shown) and then the King. Her foretellings were popular with the king until he wanted an annulment from Catherine of Aragon. Apparently, she considered it wise to warn the King he would die in the near future if he married Anne Boleyn. Elizabeth was hung soon after that prophecy.

A fault tree is shown overleaf (below) for the prophecy telling of the 14^th century in UK.

Fs A BCDE BC DE B C D E1 =1x 10-5hr-1 =4x 10-5hy-1 Ac = 2 x 10-5hr-1 1 = 3x 10 5hy-1 1= = 5 x 10 5hy-1 Hazard rates for