er 13 Homework Spreadsheet eBook The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living below the poverty level. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Simple exponential smoothing Select all the features of this time series that made you decide which exponential smoothing model to use. Both "Trend" and "Sersonality" b. Use the exponential smoothing from part a to forecast these data. Use the standard parameters suggested by StatTools. What is the RMSE? If needed, round your answer to one decimal digit. c. Repeat part b, but search for the parameters that make RMSE as small as possible. Create a chart of the series with the forecasts superimposed from this optimal parameters. What is the new RMSE? If needed, round your answer to one decimal digit. 1.1 d. Write a short report to summarize your results. Considering the chart in part c, would you say the forecasts are "good"? The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor blank Hide Feedback Partially Correct Check My Work A1 XV fx Year c D E F Source:US. Census Bureau Percent 27.3 26.9 25.6 25.0 23.1 23.0 210 17.6 16.6 15.6 14.0 15.1 15.3 15.1 14.4 15.4 1741 16.0 162 15.9 16.4 183 2000 21.9 22.3 215 20.7 20.5 20.3 19,5 19,6 20.6 218 223 22.7 218 20.8 20.5 19.9 Year 1959 3 1960 4 1961 5 1962 6 1963 7 1964 1965 1966 10 1967 11 1968 12 1969 13 1970 14 1971 15 1972 16 1973 12 1974 18 1975 19 1976 20 1972 21 1978 22 23 1980 24 1981 25 1982 26 1983 27 1984 26 1985 29 1986 30 1987 11 1988 32 1989 13 1990 1991 15 1532 1993 1954 1995 1936 1992 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 1979 : 16.9 16.1 163 162 176 173 17 124 1. Data er 13 Homework Spreadsheet eBook The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living below the poverty level. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Simple exponential smoothing Select all the features of this time series that made you decide which exponential smoothing model to use. Both "Trend" and "Sersonality" b. Use the exponential smoothing from part a to forecast these data. Use the standard parameters suggested by StatTools. What is the RMSE? If needed, round your answer to one decimal digit. c. Repeat part b, but search for the parameters that make RMSE as small as possible. Create a chart of the series with the forecasts superimposed from this optimal parameters. What is the new RMSE? If needed, round your answer to one decimal digit. 1.1 d. Write a short report to summarize your results. Considering the chart in part c, would you say the forecasts are "good"? The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor blank Hide Feedback Partially Correct Check My Work A1 XV fx Year c D E F Source:US. Census Bureau Percent 27.3 26.9 25.6 25.0 23.1 23.0 210 17.6 16.6 15.6 14.0 15.1 15.3 15.1 14.4 15.4 1741 16.0 162 15.9 16.4 183 2000 21.9 22.3 215 20.7 20.5 20.3 19,5 19,6 20.6 218 223 22.7 218 20.8 20.5 19.9 Year 1959 3 1960 4 1961 5 1962 6 1963 7 1964 1965 1966 10 1967 11 1968 12 1969 13 1970 14 1971 15 1972 16 1973 12 1974 18 1975 19 1976 20 1972 21 1978 22 23 1980 24 1981 25 1982 26 1983 27 1984 26 1985 29 1986 30 1987 11 1988 32 1989 13 1990 1991 15 1532 1993 1954 1995 1936 1992 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 1979 : 16.9 16.1 163 162 176 173 17 124 1. Data
