Question
Evaluate the project using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). a) Explain your choice of the discount rate being used when evaluating the project. Evaluate
Evaluate the project using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). a) Explain your choice of the discount rate being used when evaluating the project.
Evaluate the project using Adjusted Present Value. Assume the debt will be paid back in equal installments over the life of the project. The cost of debt for computing the present value of the financing is 7.75%. a) Explain your choice of the discount rate being used when evaluating the project.
Evaluate the assumptions made by Robert Gates in developing his projections. If you dont agree with any of the assumptions, adjust them to what you believe should be appropriate and explain
Questions
How sensitive is the decision to the assumptions? Explain how you performed your sensitivity analysis and demonstrate the implications for your solution. Show how to obtain NPV and should they expand?
Historical Income Statement
Operating Results: | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |||
Revenue | $503.4 | $543.7 | $587.2 | $636.1 | $680.7 | |||
Less: Cost of Goods Sold | 405.2 | 432.3 | 496.2 | 513.4 | 558.2 | |||
Gross Profit | 98.2 | 111.4 | 91.0 | 122.7 | 122.5 | |||
Less: Selling, General & Administrative | 37.8 | 44.6 | 45.8 | 51.5 | 49.0 | |||
EBITDA | 60.4 | 66.8 | 45.2 | 71.2 | 73.5 | |||
Less: Depreciation | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | |||
EBIT | 53.6 | 60.6 | 39.2 | 65.3 | 67.4 | |||
Less: Interest Expense | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.3 | |||
EBT | 48.1 | 54.8 | 33.3 | 60.0 | 64.1 | |||
Less: Taxes | 19.2 | 22.0 | 13.3 | 24.0 | 25.6 | |||
Net Income | $28.9 | $32.8 | $20.0 | $36.0 | $38.5 | |||
Margins: | ||||||||
Revenue Growth | NA | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | |||
Gross Margin | 19.5% | 20.5% | 15.5% | 19.3% | 18.0% | |||
Selling, General & Administrative/Revenue | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | |||
EBITDA Margin | 12.0% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 10.8% | |||
EBIT Margin | 10.6% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 9.9% | |||
Net Income Margin | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | |||
Effective Tax Rate | 39.9% | 40.1% | 39.9% | 40.0% | 39.9% | |||
Payout Ratio | 49.83% | 50.00% | 30.50% | 49.72% | 59.74% | |||
Retention Ratio | 50.17% | 50.00% | 69.50% | 50.28% | 40.26% | |||
ROE | 14.17% | 14.88% | 8.54% | 14.26% | 14.37% | |||
Sustainable Growth | 7.11% | 7.44% | 5.93% | 7.17% | 5.79% | |||
Total Asset Turnover | 149.02% | 156.15% | 163.25% | 171.18% | 178.76% | |||
Equity Multiplier | 165.59% | 157.99% | 153.52% | 147.23% | 142.14% | |||
ROA | 8.56% | 9.42% | 5.56% | 9.69% | 10.11% |
Historical Balance Sheet
Assets: | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |||
Cash & Cash Equivalents | $4.3 | $5.1 | $4.8 | $7.8 | $5.0 | |||
Accounts Receivable | 62.1 | 70.1 | 78.8 | 87.1 | 93.3 | |||
Inventory | 57.7 | 58.0 | 61.2 | 61.9 | 67.3 | |||
Total Current Assets | 124.1 | 133.2 | 144.8 | 156.8 | 165.6 | |||
Property, Plant & Equipment | 201.4 | 202.9 | 203.1 | 202.3 | 204.4 | |||
Other Non-Current Assets | 12.3 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 10.8 | |||
Total Assets | $337.8 | $348.2 | $359.7 | $371.6 | $380.8 | |||
Liabilities & Owners' Equity: | ||||||||
Accounts Payable & Accrued Liabilities | $42.2 | $45.0 | $51.6 | $53.4 | $58.1 | |||
Long-Term Debt | 91.6 | 82.8 | 73.8 | 65.8 | 54.8 | |||
Owners' Equity | 204.0 | 220.4 | 234.3 | 252.4 | 267.9 | |||
Total Liabilities & Owners' Equity | $337.8 | $348.2 | $359.7 | $371.6 | $380.8 | |||
Net Working Capital: | ||||||||
Accounts Receivable | 62.1 | 70.1 | 78.8 | 87.1 | 93.3 | |||
Plus: Inventory | 57.7 | 58.0 | 61.2 | 61.9 | 67.3 | |||
Less: Accounts Payable & Accrued Expenses | 42.2 | 45.0 | 51.6 | 53.4 | 58.1 | |||
Net Working Capital | 77.6 | 83.1 | 88.4 | 95.6 | 102.5 | |||
Net Working Capital/Revenue | 15.4% | 15.3% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 15.1% | |||
Days Sales Outstanding | 44.4x | 46.4x | 48.3x | 49.3x | 49.3x | |||
Days Sales Inventory | 41.3x | 38.4x | 37.5x | 35.0x | 35.6x | |||
Days Payable Outstanding (1) | 34.3x | 34.0x | 34.3x | 34.0x | 34.4x | |||
Cash-to-Cash | 51.4x | 50.8x | 51.6x | 50.3x | 50.5x | |||
Days in Inventory | 51.3x | 48.3x | 44.4x | 43.4x | 43.4x | |||
Days in Payable | 37.5x | 37.5x | 37.4x | 37.4x | 37.5x | |||
Operating Cycle | 95.7x | 94.7x | 92.7x | 92.7x | 92.7x | |||
Cash Cycle | 58.2x | 57.2x | 55.3x | 55.3x | 55.3x | |||
Historical Cash Flows
Cash From Operations: | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |||
Net Income | $28.9 | $32.8 | $20.0 | $36.0 | $38.5 | |||
Plus: Depreciation | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | |||
Less: Increase in Accounts Receivable | 3.1 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 6.2 | |||
Less: Increase in Inventory | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 5.4 | |||
Plus: Increase in Accounts Payable | 0.3 | 2.8 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 4.7 | |||
Total Cash From Operations | $32.4 | $33.5 | $20.7 | $34.7 | $37.7 | |||
Cash From Investing: | ||||||||
Capital Expenditures | $7.3 | $7.7 | $6.2 | $5.1 | $8.2 | |||
Plus: Increases in Other Non-Current Assets | 0.5 | (0.2) | (0.3) | 0.7 | (1.7) | |||
Total Cash Used in Investing | $7.8 | $7.5 | $5.9 | $5.8 | $6.5 | |||
Cash From Financing: | ||||||||
Repayment of Debt | $8.0 | $8.8 | $9.0 | $8.0 | $11.0 | |||
Plus: Dividend Payments | 14.4 | 16.4 | 6.1 | 17.9 | 23.0 | |||
Cash Used in Financing | $22.4 | $25.2 | $15.1 | $25.9 | $34.0 | |||
Total Cash Generated | $2.2 | $0.8 | ($0.3) | $3.0 | ($2.8) |
Comparable Companies
Market | Net | Enterprise | Equity | Net | Book | |||||
Company: | Value | Debt | Value | Beta | Revenue | EBITDA | EBIT | Income | Value | |
Cathleen Sinclair | 298.9 | 1,329.6 | 1,628.5 | 2.22 | 1,346.8 | 255.3 | 163.4 | 21.5 | (1,112.8) | |
General Health & Beauty | 319.3 | 63.1 | 382.4 | 1.95 | 446.1 | 61.9 | 51.9 | 23.8 | 204.2 | |
Women's Care Company | 498.6 | 55.3 | 553.9 | 1.14 | 397.3 | 52.7 | 49.3 | 77.0 | 43.7 | |
Skin Care Enterprises | 1,204.2 | 371.9 | 1,576.1 | 1.35 | 1,247.6 | 155.8 | 125.4 | 65.3 | 316.2 | |
Hansson Private Label | 464.7 | 49.8 | 514.5 | 680.7 | 73.5 | 67.4 | 38.5 | 267.9 | ||
Company: | EBITDA | EBIT | Earnings | Revenue | EBITDA | EBIT | P/E | P/B | ||
Cathleen Sinclair | 19.0% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 1.2x | 6.4x | 10.0x | 13.9x | NM | ||
General Health & Beauty | 13.9% | 11.6% | 5.3% | 0.9x | 6.2x | 7.4x | 13.4x | 1.6x | ||
Women's Care Company | 13.3% | 12.4% | 19.4% | 1.4x | 10.5x | 11.2x | 6.5x | 11.4x | ||
Skin Care Enterprises | 12.5% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 1.3x | 10.1x | 12.6x | 18.4x | 3.8x | ||
Average | 14.6% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 1.2x | 8.3x | 10.3x | 13.1x | 5.6x | ||
Hansson Private Label | 10.8% | 9.9% | 5.7% | 0.8x | 7.0x | 7.6x | 12.1x | 1.7x |
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Debt/ | Debt/ | Equity | Debt | Asset | |||||||||
Company: | Value | Equity | Beta | Beta | Beta | ||||||||
Cathleen Sinclair | 81.6% | 444.9% | 2.22 | 0.25 | 0.79 | ||||||||
General Health & Beauty | 16.5% | 19.8% | 1.95 | 0.00 | 1.74 | ||||||||
Women's Care Company | 10.0% | 11.1% | 1.14 | 0.00 | 1.07 | ||||||||
Skin Care Enterprises | 23.6% | 30.9% | 1.35 | 0.00 | 1.14 | ||||||||
Average | 32.9% | 49.1% | 1.67 | 0.06 | 1.18 | ||||||||
Dbet/ | Debt/ | Asset | Equity | Cost of | Cost of | Assumptions: | |||||||
Value | Equity | Beta | Beta | Equity | Debt | WACC | 10-Year Treasury | 3.75% | |||||
0.0% | 0.0% | 1.18 | 1.18 | 9.67% | 7.75% | 9.67% | Market Risk Premium | 5.00% | |||||
5.0% | 5.3% | 1.18 | 1.22 | 9.86% | 7.75% | 9.60% | |||||||
10.0% | 11.1% | 1.18 | 1.26 | 10.07% | 7.75% | 9.53% | Tax Rate | 40.0% | |||||
15.0% | 17.6% | 1.18 | 1.31 | 10.30% | 7.75% | 9.45% | |||||||
20.0% | 25.0% | 1.18 | 1.36 | 10.56% | 7.75% | 9.38% | Est. Hansson EBITDA Multiple | 7.0x | |||||
25.0% | 33.3% | 1.18 | 1.42 | 10.86% | 7.75% | 9.31% | Est. Hansson Enterprise Value | 514.5 | |||||
20.9% | 26.4% | 1.18 | 1.37 | 10.61% | 7.75% | 9.37% | |||||||
Existing Net Debt | 49.8 | ||||||||||||
Plus: New Expansion Debt | 57.8 | ||||||||||||
Total Estimated Debt | 107.6 | ||||||||||||
Existing D/V | 9.7% | ||||||||||||
Estimated New D/V | 20.9% | ||||||||||||
Assumed Debt Beta | 0.00 | ||||||||||||
Estimated Cost of Debt | 7.75% |
Investment
Percent | Cost of | ||||||
Cost Components: | Amount | Est. Life | Depr' | Maintenance | Maintenance | ||
Facility Expansion | $10,000 | 20yrs. | 500 | 5.0% | 500 | ||
Manufacturing Equipment | 20,000 | 10yrs. | 2,000 | 5.0% | 1,000 | ||
Packaging Equipment | 15,000 | 10yrs. | 1,500 | 5.0% | 750 | ||
Working Capital (1) | 12,817 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | |||
Total Investment | 57,817 | 4,000 | 2,250 | ||||
(1) The increase in working capital is not expected to ocurr upfront | |||||||
at the time of the initial investment. It is assumed to take place | |||||||
throughout the year, and should be considered as part of the | |||||||
2009 cash flows. | |||||||
Note: working capital is defined as accounts receivable plus inventory | |||||||
less accounts payable and accrued expenses. At the end of the | |||||||
project, working capital will be returned in an amount equal to | |||||||
accounts receivable less accounts payable. |
Operating Assumptions
Revenue Projection: | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | ||||
Total Capacity (000's) | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | ||||
Capacity Utilization | 60.0% | 65.0% | 70.0% | 75.0% | 80.0% | 85.0% | 85.0% | 85.0% | 85.0% | 85.0% | ||||
Unit Volume | 48,000 | 52,000 | 56,000 | 60,000 | 64,000 | 68,000 | 68,000 | 68,000 | 68,000 | 68,000 | ||||
Selling Price Per Unit - Growing at | 2.0% | 1.77 | 1.81 | 1.84 | 1.88 | 1.92 | 1.95 | 1.99 | 2.03 | 2.07 | 2.12 | |||
Revenue | 84,960 | 93,881 | 103,124 | 112,700 | 122,618 | 132,887 | 135,545 | 138,256 | 141,021 | 143,841 | ||||
Production Costs: | ||||||||||||||
Raw Materials Per Unit Growing at | 1.0% | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | |||
Manufacturing Overhead Growing at | 3.0% | 3,920 | 4,038 | 4,159 | 4,283 | 4,412 | 4,544 | 4,681 | 4,821 | 4,966 | 5,115 | |||
Maintenance Expense Growing at | 3.0% | 2,250 | 2,318 | 2,387 | 2,459 | 2,532 | 2,608 | 2,687 | 2,767 | 2,850 | 2,936 | |||
Salaried Labor Cost: | ||||||||||||||
Managers | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||||
Average Annual Fully Loaded Cost | 3.5% | 160.0 | 165.6 | 171.4 | 177.4 | 183.6 | 190.0 | 196.7 | 203.6 | 210.7 | 218.1 | |||
Total Salaried Labor Cost | 640.0 | 662.4 | 1,028.4 | 1,064.4 | 1,101.6 | 1,140.2 | 1,180.1 | 1,221.4 | 1,264.1 | 1,308.4 | ||||
Hourly Labor Cost: | ||||||||||||||
Average Fully Loaded Hourly Cost | 3.5% | 20.00 | 20.70 | 21.42 | 22.17 | 22.95 | 23.75 | 24.59 | 25.45 | 26.34 | 27.26 | |||
Hours Per Year | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | ||||
Cost Per Hourly Employee | 40,000 | 41,400 | 42,849 | 44,349 | 45,901 | 47,507 | 49,170 | 50,891 | 52,672 | 54,516 | ||||
Number of Hourly Workers | 450 | 473 | 509 | 545 | 582 | 618 | 618 | 618 | 618 | 618 | ||||
Total Hourly Labor Cost (000's) | 18,000.0 | 19,570.9 | 21,814.0 | 24,190.2 | 26,706.0 | 29,368.2 | 30,396.1 | 31,460.0 | 32,561.1 | 33,700.7 | ||||
Total Labor Cost | 18,640.0 | 20,233.3 | 22,842.4 | 25,254.6 | 27,807.6 | 30,508.4 | 31,576.2 | 32,681.4 | 33,825.2 | 35,009.1 | ||||
Selling, General & Administrative/Revenue | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | ||||
Working Capital Assumptions (1): | ||||||||||||||
Days Sales Outstanding | 47.6x | 47.6x | 47.6x | 47.6x | 47.6x | 47.6x | 47.6x | 47.6x | 47.6x | 47.6x | ||||
Days Sales Inventory | 37.6x | 37.6x | 37.6x | 37.6x | 37.6x | 37.6x | 37.6x | 37.6x | 37.6x | 37.6x | ||||
Days Payable Outstanding | 34.2x | 34.2x | 34.2x | 34.2x | 34.2x | 34.2x | 34.2x | 34.2x | 34.2x | 34.2x | ||||
(1) Based on historical averages. | ||||||||||||||
Hourly Labor Cost Per Unit | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 0.50 | ||||
Units Per Total Labor Hours | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
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