Question
Every night that the Red Sox have a home game at Fenway Park, the concession vendors assemble to pick the food or drink they want
Every night that the Red Sox have a home game at Fenway Park, the concession vendors assemble to pick the food or drink they want to sell that night as well as the section they want to sell in. This process is known as "The Pick" and, since the vendors work on commissions, making a good choice is important. A good selection is tied to the weather as well as whether the game will be close or not: a cold night does not do well for selling water, and a long close game is great for selling beer in the bleachers. You are a new vendor and are given the following three choices: beer in the bleachers, water behind home plate, and hot dogs near the dugout. Based on what you've observed this year, you expect to make the following in commissions for each based on the weather and if the game is close or a blowout:
Hot and Close: Beer makes $220, Water makes $100, Hot Dogs makes $160
Hot and Blowout: Beer makes $120, Water makes $140, Hot Dogs makes $100
Cold and Close: Beer makes $200, Water makes $80, Hot Dogs makes $180
Cold and Blowout: Beer makes $120, Water makes $60, Hot Dogs makes $200
You are deciding what to sell on Monday when the Astros are coming into town. Based on the two teams, you feel there is a 30% chance of a close game. Also, the weather is forecast to have a 60% chance of being cold.
What is the best decision for you to sell based on each of the following decision criteria:
(a) Maximax ______________________
(b) Maximin ______________________
(c) Expected Value ______________________
(d) Minimax Regret ______________________
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