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Everything about the deal was acceptable to Malaysian Airlines and the Boeing Company in January, 1995. The final negotiated price for 20 new jets in

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Everything about the deal was acceptable to Malaysian Airlines and the Boeing Company in January, 1995. The final negotiated price for 20 new jets in the 737 series was $500 million (US). Payment was expected upon delivery, scheduled for exactly twelve months later. As Malaysian Chairman of the Board Idris Jala saw it, there was one major concern: foreign exchange risk. A decision had to be made fast, due to the deteriorating condition of the airline's fleet. Covenants restricting the ability of Malaysian Airlines to take on new debt made it critical that Jala be sure about risk exposure before finalizing the deal. In the preceding five years, the value of the US dollar had increased to record levels against most international currencies, and the majority of analysts refused to guess when it would stop appreciating. The value of the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) per USD had changed from 1.7 MYR/USD to 3.17 MYR/USD on the scheduled day for signing the contract. This increase was at the front of the chairman's mind as he thought of ways to put together the US$500 million payment in twelve months. At the current exchange rate of 3.17 MYR/USD, the deal would cost Malaysian Airlines MYR1,585 million. If the dollar's appreciation continued to 3.5 MYR/USD, the deal could cost Malaysian Airlines an additional MYR165 million by the time payment was due While many analysts predicted a continuing appreciation of the US dollar, several international banks said it was over-valued and that further increases would hurt many national economies - especially the US. Congressional leaders were hearing complaints about US exporters finding it increasingly difficult to compete in overseas markets, and the flood of inexpensive imported products was believed to have cost the country up to 3,000,000 jobs. Representatives and Senators had therefore started mulling over trade protection measures and ways to reign in the dollar's value. Idris Jala believed that the value of the USD would start falling before the following January, perhaps from 3.17 MYR/UDS to between 2.45 and 2.50 MYR/USD. But he was uncertain about when the depreciation would start; and if he made a wrong decision, his company could end up

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