- Examine Exhibit 7 in detail. How important are each of the underlying financial assumptions in the ROA forecast? What assumptions (i.e., margins, asset turnover, growth) play the biggest role in driving the anticipated improvements in ROA?
EXHIBIT 7.7 | Deutsche Bank Model (in millions of USD, except per share figures) Actual 2011 Actual 2012 Actual 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast 2015 At Fiscal Year End 4.0% 12.2% 8.5% 38.1% 7.7% 15.7% 9.0% 38.4% 8.1% 10.49 9.5% 38.8% 10.5% 11.1% 9.4% 39.096 12.6% 14.0% 9.8% 39.0% 7.0 10.5 6.4 1.00 5.6 10.9 6.5 0.93 6.5 10.7 6.7 0.94 7.0 10.5 6.7 7.1 10.5 6.7 0.94 0.94 Store Growth Sales Growth EBITDA Margin Tax Rate Current Asset Turnover Current Liabilities Turnover Net PP&EStore Annual Dep. & Amort./Store Stores Sales EBITDA Dep. & Amort. EBIT Taxes Net Income Shares Outstanding Earnings per Share Current Assets Current Liabilities Not Working Capital Net PP&E 311 10,109 859 311 548 209 339 350 0.97 335 11,699 1,055 311 744 286 458 364 362 12,917 1.222 339 883 343 540 372 1.45 450 16,360 1.600 423 1,176 400 14,351 1,352 376 976 381 596 372 1.60 459 717 372 1.93 1.26 1.453 880 573 1,997 2.103 977 1,126 2,193 1.980 1,088 892 2,428 2.050 1238 812 2.680 2.304 1,406 898 3,018 18.3% Return on Capital 13.2% 13.8% 16.3% 17.1% Data source: Company financial reports, Deutsche Bank research, and author estimates. EXHIBIT 7.7 | Deutsche Bank Model (in millions of USD, except per share figures) Actual 2011 Actual 2012 Actual 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast 2015 At Fiscal Year End 4.0% 12.2% 8.5% 38.1% 7.7% 15.7% 9.0% 38.4% 8.1% 10.49 9.5% 38.8% 10.5% 11.1% 9.4% 39.096 12.6% 14.0% 9.8% 39.0% 7.0 10.5 6.4 1.00 5.6 10.9 6.5 0.93 6.5 10.7 6.7 0.94 7.0 10.5 6.7 7.1 10.5 6.7 0.94 0.94 Store Growth Sales Growth EBITDA Margin Tax Rate Current Asset Turnover Current Liabilities Turnover Net PP&EStore Annual Dep. & Amort./Store Stores Sales EBITDA Dep. & Amort. EBIT Taxes Net Income Shares Outstanding Earnings per Share Current Assets Current Liabilities Not Working Capital Net PP&E 311 10,109 859 311 548 209 339 350 0.97 335 11,699 1,055 311 744 286 458 364 362 12,917 1.222 339 883 343 540 372 1.45 450 16,360 1.600 423 1,176 400 14,351 1,352 376 976 381 596 372 1.60 459 717 372 1.93 1.26 1.453 880 573 1,997 2.103 977 1,126 2,193 1.980 1,088 892 2,428 2.050 1238 812 2.680 2.304 1,406 898 3,018 18.3% Return on Capital 13.2% 13.8% 16.3% 17.1% Data source: Company financial reports, Deutsche Bank research, and author estimates