Exercise 1.18 Sally is new to the area and listens to some friends discussing about another female friend.

Sally knows that they are talking about either Alice or Bella but doesn't know which. From previous conver-

sations Sally knows some independent pieces of information: She's 90% sure that Alice has a white car, but

doesn't know if Bella's car is white or black. Similarly, she's 90% sure that Bella likes sushi, but doesn't know

if Alice likes sushi. Sally hears from the conversation that the person being discussed hates sushi and drives

a white car. What is the probability that the friends are talking about Alice?