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Exercise 1.6. Consider a decision-maker whose subjective probability distribution over the set of possible states 9 is p = (12(5)),(9. We ask him to tell

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Exercise 1.6. Consider a decision-maker whose subjective probability distribution over the set of possible states 9 is p = (12(5)),(9. We ask him to tell us his subjective probabilin distribution. but he can lie and report any distribution in MD.) that he wants. To guide his reporting decision. we plan to give him some reward Y(q,.i') that will be a function of the probability distribution q that he reports and the true state of nature 3 that will be subsequently observed. a. Suppose that his utility for our reward is u(Y(q.s).s) = 9(5). [or every 1; in 1(0) and every 5 in I}. Will his report 4 be his true subjective probability distribution p? If not, what will he report? b. Suppose that his utility for our reward is u(Y(q,s).s) = log,(q(s)), for every q and 5. Will his report q be his true subjective probability distri- bution 1:? If not, what will he report

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