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EXHIBIT 9 Sensitivity Analysis of Project IRR's by Price, Volume, Development Costs and Cost of Goods Sold Unit Volume (First 20 Years) Price Premium 15.66%

EXHIBIT 9
Sensitivity Analysis of Project IRR's by Price, Volume, Development Costs and Cost of Goods Sold
Unit Volume
(First 20 Years) Price Premium
15.66% 0% 5% 10% 15%
1500 10.5% 10.9% 11.3% 11.7%
1750 11.9% 12.3% 12.7% 13.1%
2000 13.0% 13.5% 13.9% 14.4%
2250 14.1% 14.6% 15.1% 15.5%
2500 15.2% 15.7% 16.1% 16.6%
2750 16.1% 16.6% 17.1% 17.6%
3000 17.1% 17.6% 18.1% 18.6%
Development
Costs COGS / Sales
15.66% 78% 80% 82% 84%
$6,000,000,000 21.3% 18.7% 15.9% 12.6%
$7,000,000,000 19.4% 17.0% 14.4% 11.3%
$8,000,000,000 17.9% 15.7% 13.2% 10.3%
$9,000,000,000 16.6% 14.5% 12.1% 9.4%
$10,000,000,000 15.5% 13.5% 11.2% 8.6%
Note: The section below gives key assumptions driving the model--varying these assumptions, given in yellow, allows one to test the sensitivity of IRR.
Average % deliveries of total to date of 757 and 767 For First 20 Years
Year % Deliveries Year %7E7 %7E7 Stretch
1 1.19% 2008 100% 0%
2 4.32% 2009 100% 0%
3 2.54% 2010 80% 20%
4 3.30% 2011 50% 50% Year 4-30 (Need to modify Exhibit 8 spreadsheet construction if the 50% is changed)
5 3.35% 2012
6 4.16% 2013
7 5.46% 2014
8 4.76% 2015
9 7.41% 2016
10 7.68% 2017
11 8.76% 2018
12 6.59% 2019
13 5.95% 2020
14 4.32% 2021
15 4.59% 2022
16 4.76% 2023
17 5.46% 2024
18 6.00% 2025
19 4.81% 2026
20 4.59% 2027
21-30 4.59%
Deliveries in years 1-20 2500
Deliveries in years 21-30 Same as year 20
Development costs $8,000,000,000
Composition of development costs:
Capital Expenditures 25%
R&D 75%
Timing of development costs 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
5% 15% 50% 15% 10% 5%
Minimum Price of 7E7 in 2002 U.S. $ 120500000
Minimum Price of 7E7 stretch in 2002 U.S. $ 144500000
Cheaper operating cost and other features price premium 5%
Service Revenues
Cost of goods sold 80%
GSA percentage 7.5%
R&D 2.3%
Tax Expense 35%
Capital Expenditures 0.16%
Working capital % of sales 6.7%
Inflation 2%
Depreciation 150% declining balance 20 year, 0 salvage value. Calculations at bottom of exhibit 7

What does sensitivity analysis reveal about the nature of Boeing's gamble on the 7E7??

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