Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election prior to results being tallied. Suppose a referendum to increase funding for education is on the ballot in a large town (voting population over 100,000). An exit poll of

400

voters finds that

212

voted for the referendum. How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is

0.49?

Based on your result, comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections.

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Part 1

How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is

0.49?

The probability that

more

than

212

people voted for the referendum is

enter your response here.

(Round to four decimal places as needed.)

Part 2

Comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections. Choose the correct answer below.

A.

The result

is

unusual because the probability that

p

is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is

greater

than 5%. Thus, it

isnot

unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election if exit polling alone is considered.

B.

The result

is

unusual because the probability that

p

is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is

less

than 5%. Thus, it

is

unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election if exit polling alone is considered.

C.

The result

isnot

unusual because the probability that

p

is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is

greater

than 5%. Thus, it

isnot

unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election if exit polling alone is considered.

D.

The result

isnot

unusual because the probability that

p

is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is

less

than 5%. Thus, it

is

unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election if exit polling alone is considered.