Expectations regarding the stack mather State of Probability HAR economy Recession 10% -20 Normal growth 50% 15 30 Boom 40% calculate: Arithmetic Average i Geometric Average: Expected rate of return: Er)=(.10-20) + (+50) (15) + (.40) (30) = 17.5% Variance Standard elevelation: = {{(s)[r(s)-E(+)]