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Explain 500 words or more One practical interpretation of time series models is that they represent the impact of new information on the variables we

Explain 500 words or more

One practical interpretation of time series models is that they represent the impact of new information on the variables we are modeling. For example, a p-order autoregressive model contains p lags to the dependent variable that represents the impact of past information, and the model error term represents the impact of new information.

In a covariance stationary model, the impact of past information diminishes over time. In contrast, the impact of past information does not diminish over time in a random walk model, and an information shock remains in the time series forever. Some asset price series may be characterized by a random walk model -- does it make sense to you that an information shock 50 years ago is still reflected in the asset price? Is this a realistic feature of the statistical model?

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