TABLE I Estimating a Linear Trend in the Civilian Unemployment Rate Monthly Observa- tions, January 1996December 2000 Regression Statistics R-squared Standard error Observations DurbinWatson Intercept Trend Coeffcient 5.5098 -0.0294 0.9314 0.1405 60 0.9099 Standard Error 0.0367 0.0010 t-Statistic 150.0363 -28.0715