Eco 309-Sp22-Assignment I due by I I .59 pm (midnight) on Sunday, Feb 6, 2022 (Chapters I and (part of ) 4) otal points 12S_ Submit through DIL m WordExceI fonn* smgle or multiple files. Must show your work, answer all parts of the question: and uTite necessary explanations to earn fill] points. You have to use Excel to solve this numencal problem (project) I. The following data ccwers 24 periods (could be years, quarters or months) for company XYZ' s sales in Smillions. I. Plot the data usmg Excel (insert: Chart, scatter: lines.. e) showing the trend line m the plot Comment on the visible features m the plot Does it look stationarity and/or Seasonality ? or why not? 2. Calculate the autoconelation coeffcients r I , E, r, Is, r", r. and rg for the above series and plot the 'Correlogram" using Excel. "'hat do the autocorrelation coeffclents tell about the time senes. 3. Create a table of first differences of the series (Yt- Yt-l)_ Plot the first differenced series and comment on its stationarity. Run 3-periods and 4-periods moving average forecasts for dae above sales data and compare the forecasts using NIAD, N[APE: XLSE, RMSE. Forecast for one penod ahead (beyond the sample). Also calculate the Mean Percentage Effor CvIPE) for NIA(S) and IA(4) forecasts and discuss the systematic bias (If any) illustrating with die plot of actual vs forecasted values for both NIA(S) and NIA(4) forasts. did such a systematic bias occur? Cone ct this bias by performing a Double Moving Average meod mth four penods and plot the errors ofDMA(4). Calculate its MAD: MAPE, MSE: PAISE, and MPE and compare with simple -MA(4) forecast. Ilake a forecast for period (one period beyond the sample) using DX'IA(4)_