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Fatima is a financial advisor who has recommended two possible mutual funds for investment: Fund A and Fund B. The return that will be achieved
- Fatima is a financial advisor who has recommended two possible mutual funds for investment: Fund A and Fund B. The return that will be achieved by each of these depends on whether the economy is good, fair, or poor. A payoff table has been constructed to illustrate this situation: (25 Marks)
Alternative: | Good Economy (BD) | Fair Economy (BD) | Poor Economy (BD) |
Fund A | 21000 | 4200 | -11000 |
Fund A | 13000 | 8100 | -2200 |
No Investment | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Probabilities | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
- Determine the best decision using the following decision criteria assuming probabilities are not known: Maximax (2 Marks), Maximin (2 Marks), Minimax Regret (4 Marks) Total = (8 Marks)
- Taking into account the given probabilities it is assumed that the decision making environment is risk based. Calculate the
- Expected Monetary Value (Computation of Values = 5 Marks)
- Expected Opportunity loss (Computation of Table = 5 Marks)
- EVPI; (EVPI = EVwPI EMV) (2 Marks)
- Develop a decision tree with expected values at the probability nodes (5 Marks)
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