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Fatima is a financial advisor who has recommended two possible mutual funds for investment: Fund A and Fund B. The return that will be achieved

  1. Fatima is a financial advisor who has recommended two possible mutual funds for investment: Fund A and Fund B. The return that will be achieved by each of these depends on whether the economy is good, fair, or poor. A payoff table has been constructed to illustrate this situation: (25 Marks)

Alternative:

Good Economy (BD)

Fair Economy (BD)

Poor Economy (BD)

Fund A

21000

4200

-11000

Fund A

13000

8100

-2200

No Investment

0

0

0

Probabilities

0.5

0.2

0.3

  1. Determine the best decision using the following decision criteria assuming probabilities are not known: Maximax (2 Marks), Maximin (2 Marks), Minimax Regret (4 Marks) Total = (8 Marks)
  2. Taking into account the given probabilities it is assumed that the decision making environment is risk based. Calculate the
  1. Expected Monetary Value (Computation of Values = 5 Marks)
  2. Expected Opportunity loss (Computation of Table = 5 Marks)
  3. EVPI; (EVPI = EVwPI EMV) (2 Marks)
  4. Develop a decision tree with expected values at the probability nodes (5 Marks)

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